🏅 Top traders

11% chance. Resolves YES if any of (the U.S. government, Economist, WSJ, NYT, or FT) reports there was a bombing at an Iranian nuclear facility (any location on this list, or a site the article refers to as a nuclear facility) before Jan 1 2024 (Tehran local time). If the news source reports an explosion at the site with an unknown cause it is assumed to be a bombing after two weeks, unless the reporting news source identifies it as an accident/non-antagonistic cause before then. The criteria for "at" and "explosion" are fairly permissive. Some examples: A bomb detonating within a parking lot used primarily by the site, even if it's distant from the site, resolves YES. An explosive attack on site personnel while they're not onsite does not resolve this question. An aerial bombing, crashing aircraft, or grenade attack on the grounds of the site (even if it's far from the specific locations that handle nuclear material) resolves YES. A cyber attack, non-thermal mechanical failure, or small arms fire do not resolve this question.

14% chance.