What will happen during or as a result of the Iranian drone attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]
Jun 1
A cyberattack targeting Iran will occur
A cyberattack targeting the state of Israel will occur
At least one person dies
Irondome catches 5 drones
Iran or its proxies launch at least 200 drones
Iran will launch a second attack on or after April 14 UTC
Any strike or attack occurs in Tel Aviv
Iran and Israel begin a formal war
The S&P 500 drops at least 1% on April 15
A new package of aid to Israel will be passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of May
Donald Trump will gain at least 1 point on Joe Biden in the RCP polling average by the end of April
American aircraft shoot down at least one Iranian drone
The attack will be the largest drone attack in history (by number of drones)
Joe Biden makes a statement on April 13 (EST)
U.S. directly intervenes militarily
[DUPLICATE] Israel will launch a retaliatory strike by April 16 UTC


"Iran launched dozens of drones against Israel on Saturday night local time, four U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios."

All answers resolve N/A if a drone attack does not occur. To resolve YES, the event described in the answer must have occurred by the start of June. If it is unclear whether or not an event occurred in this time frame, I will resolve N/A. Any event that is not plausibly related to the attack will resolve N/A, although I will be lenient with this.

Crude oil MarketWatch answers resolve according to this page: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Donald Trump will gain at least 1 point on Joe Biden in the RCP polling average by the end of April
bought Ṁ3,750 Donald Trump will ga... YES

Resolves YES:

The margin when the drone attack happened was Trump+0.2. The margin on April 30 was Trump+1.5.

@noney Yes

@SaviorofPlant Biden officially signed the bill today, so this can resolve YES: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/us/politics/biden-ukraine-israel-aid.html

A new package of aid to Israel will be passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of May
bought Ṁ200 A new package of aid... YES

Aid package for Israel military assistance – passed 366-58

This can resolve no?

About two and a half hours left for this - I don't think it's going to happen that soon.

The S&P 500 drops at least 1% on April 15
bought Ṁ2,107 The S&P 500 drops at... YES


Resolves YES: "S&P 500 and Nasdaq close 1% lower"

Iran and Israel begin a formal war

Does this require a declaration of war?

@noaht2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war

Yes. Either Israel or Iran needs to pass a formal declaration of war for this to resolve yes. This is not particularly likely - "Declarations of war have been exceedingly rare since the end of World War II."

sold Ṁ50 A cyberattack target... YES

How is "Iran will launch a second attack" now lower than "Iran and Israel begin a formal war"?

A cyberattack targeting the state of Israel will occur

Group takes responsibility over cyber attack on Israel (icirnigeria.org)

"A GROUP with ties to Iran, “Cyber Avengers” have announced that they were responsible for the recent power outages across Israel, a post shared on X by a UK investigative journalist, Suleiman Ahmed, says."

I wouldn't take them at their word, but this seems likely.

bought Ṁ50 A cyberattack target... YES

Also: Iranian cyber group claims to have sent threatening texts to Israelis - Israel News - The Jerusalem Post (jpost.com)

"An Iranian cyber group named Handala claims to have breached Israel's radar systems and sent hundreds of thousands of threatening text messages to Israeli citizens."

But given Israel's success in intercepting the drones, my guess is that the radar systems were perfectly fine. And I'm not sure if threatening text messages alone count as a cyberattack.

Also, Community Notes on Twitter is saying the first tweet is fake: Sulaiman Ahmed on X https://t.co/gUQ38gTsBX" / X (twitter.com).

sold Ṁ29 Iran will launch a s... NO

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Checks out, I did a bit of looking around on the first one and only found sketchy looking Lebanese and Persian sources.

I think second one would count given a computer system was attacked in order to send them, but I'd want confirmation from Israeli sources, since the linked article is based entirely on the cyber group's claims

@TimothyJohnson5c16 "Alongside the warning, Handala posted a number of screenshots of the RADA program. However, the coordinates on the screenshots are 41°24'12.2"N 2°10'26.5"E, which point to the La Sagrada Familia church in Mallorca, Spain."

This looks dubious as well, and there's I wasn't able to find any Israeli sources on the hack.

At least one person dies
bought Ṁ100 At least one person ... NO

Young girl seriously hurt in Iran attack remains in life-threatening condition | The Times of Israel

"A 7-year-old girl, the only person in Israel who sustained significant injuries in the unprecedented attack by Iran overnight Saturday-Sunday, remained in life-threatening condition the following day at Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba.

According to an update from the hospital, the unnamed girl underwent surgery for a serious head wound and is now in the pediatric intensive care unit."

I hope she recovers! But we may need to wait a few days to resolve this.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 i think some people died in jordan. not sure if that counts

@simoj Can you link an article? That would likely count

@SaviorofPlant hmmm there are tweets about it, but i can't find any confirmation by a legitimate outlet. might be fake

@simoj That should count if it's true. But I would have expected that to be mentioned here, and it's not: Jordan faces difficult balancing act amid row over role in downing Iranian drones | Jordan | The Guardian.

A new package of aid to Israel will be passed by Congress and signed into law by the end of May
Iran or its proxies launch at least 200 drones
bought Ṁ500 Iran or its proxies ... YES

Looks like YES

bought Ṁ20 Iran will launch a s... NO

@mint NYT reported this yesterday:

"Two Israeli officials say Iran launched 185 drones and 36 cruise missiles. Most of the launches were from Iran, though a small portion came from Iraq and Yemen. Iran also launched 110 surface-to-surface missiles." (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/13/world/israel-iran-gaza-war-news)

Will wait for more reporting, but seems like that 300 number in the tweet might be all three combined

@SaviorofPlant fair enough, let's wait for a more concrete statement. But even if we take the NYT number, that only includes Iran, but the question also counts proxies

bought Ṁ15 Iran or its proxies ... NO

@mint I think it's unclear whether the NYT number is including the "small portion [that] came from Iraq and Yemen"

I can't resolve NO until June anyway since an additional drone attack by Iran would also count as being a "result of" this attack. Will wait on definitive reporting to resolve YES

@mint Wikipedia says "Iran's attack involved around 170 drones". I'm struggling to find any definitive source on the number, but there's not much support for a number over 200.

@SaviorofPlant Yeah, I think this should resolve NO unless there's another attack with more drones.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 @SaviorofPlant agreed with you both, I had already exited my position due to the uncertainty.

More related questions