Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has lead to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
1,000
3.00Don't know about drones, but it sounds like Iran doesn't have any more long-range ballistic missiles after the attack.
@Fedor it didn't end up coming very close! Two serious injuries (both, ironically, of Muslim children), but no deaths so far (hopefully the kids make it).
Note that this market requires 5 fatalities within Israel borders. That's very aggressive, I think, and would likely spark a full on escalation.