Will there be a 2024 October Surprise caused by Iran?
➕
Plus
25
Ṁ4031
resolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO

There’s a long history of “October Surprises” in US presidential politics, where there is major news in the October before the election that has the potential to affect the result. Political commentators have suggested that Iran might be involved in one this year, just like occurred with Carter in 1980. Will that be the case?

It doesn’t have to favor either party or decide the election.

Resolves by majority poll, unless there is no disagreement.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

israel just invaded lebanon. if iran retaliates, will this resolve yes?

@JamieCrom This resolves based on a poll, not my decision. I’m intentionally leaving it ambiguous, so that it matches what people think.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules