Will there be a 2024 October Surprise caused by Iran?
11
37
Ṁ219Ṁ300
Nov 2
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
There’s a long history of “October Surprises” in US presidential politics, where there is major news in the October before the election that has the potential to affect the result. Political commentators have suggested that Iran might be involved in one this year, just like occurred with Carter in 1980. Will that be the case?
It doesn’t have to favor either party or decide the election.
Resolves by majority poll, unless there is no disagreement.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will the US attack Iran by Dec 15th 2024?
26% chance
Will the US attack Iran by Aug 15th 2024?
13% chance
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Jun 2024?
4% chance
Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?
19% chance
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Jul 2024?
5% chance
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Nov 2024?
8% chance
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2024?
16% chance
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2024?
78% chance
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Oct 2024?
6% chance