🏅 Top traders

@MrMagnolia
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices
2024 1 25.35 0.83 27.55 1.87 29.67 1.45 28.34 1.78 2024 2 27.02 0.92 27.85 1.47 29.32 1.22 28.26 1.53 2024 3 26.88 0.28 28.20 1.03 29.15 0.93 28.47 1.24
All three months well over 0.5
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
JFM coloured red.

Should be enough to resolve, I think.

@ChristopherRandles Sounds good!

Does active mean above 0 or above the 1.5 degree "strong" threshold or something else?

@StevenK I would guess 0.5C threshold: see

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive overlapping seasons. The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods.

at

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

So can we confirm that if JFM is coloured red at above link, this question resolves yes otherwise no?

@ChristopherRandles This sounds good to me, excpet that I anticipate that link will not yet be updated, and I will use equivalent sources to resolve. For example, if an official blogpost on climate.gov or noaa.gov references "El Niño continuing" or "El Niño stopping", that might be sufficient

@MrMagnolia
Fair enough if there is something earlier.

How about a 100% prediction?
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume

El Niño is currently chugging along, and forecasters expect it to continue for the next several months, with a 62% chance of lasting through April­–June 2024