Will Texas experience blackouts this winter?
19%
chance

In February of 2021 Texas experienced large scale blackouts, with a near complete grid failure, due to a week long state wide winter storm. A new winter storm is coming to Texas the week of Christmas, will Texas experience rolling blackouts or large scale blackouts before march 20th of 2023?

Market will resolve yes if: multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts during a single storm cell, due to widespread power generation or distribution failures. as reported by major news organizations.

Changelog:

12/22/22: added "widespread power generation or distribution failures" into the resolution

12/19/22: added "during a single storm cell" in the resolution

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PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 26%

Cold front is here and it’s going to be above freezing all week in Austin

EugeneBixby avatar
EugeneBixby
bought Ṁ120 of YES

February winter storm data just dropped! Freezing temps expected with winter storm flurries and ice through northern and mid-Texas. Deniers beware, this WILL be a bad one!
https://youtu.be/rlglnRj9Cn4

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 17%

@EugeneBixby Not sure If I should be glad this market is getting by more action!

Especially since I’m back in the state for this storm…

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
is predicting YES at 20%

Outlook for January-February from the Old Farmer's Almanac:

Region 11: Texas-Oklahoma
Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early to mid-January and early to mid-February. Precipitation will be below average, but snowfall will be above average in the north, with the best chances for snow in mid- to late January and early February.

https://www.almanac.com/winter-extended-forecast-farmers-almanac

FWIW. Not sure how much stock to put in the Alamanac. Anyone got any other forecasts for the following two months? Wondering whether to cut my losses or wait for this to rebound.

GarrettGarzonie avatar
Garrett Garzonie
is predicting NO at 22%
LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
sold Ṁ344 of YES

@GarrettGarzonie Alright, I'm out. Time to cut my losses

Cool avatar

Any tippers? I have -43M and no chance of a comeback. In return for a 50M tip I will trade some KEY SUPER HIGHLY IMPORTANT confidential information (it may or may not be real).

DavidChee avatar

@DavidChee next time ull have to buy mana tho :P

Dio avatar
dio
bought Ṁ100 of YES

Who would have the power to cause large scale blackouts in Texas?

CromlynGames avatar
Cromlyn Games
is predicting NO at 25%

@Dio I believe it's traditionally lack of power for blackouts:)

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 61%

@BTE

“requested the emergency order Friday, warning it may need to resort to blackouts.”

“While the vast majority of generating units in the ERCOT region continue to operate without any problem, a small number of units have experienced operating difficulties due to cold weather or gas curtailments,”

BTE avatar
BTE
is predicting YES at 48%

@PhatFree Okay, but doesn't ERCOT account for like 95 percent of all capacity? So they are being measured now, but who knows what they will do once granted authority.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 51%

@BTE If you read the energy order (1) they’re looking for the approval to identify and use additional generators if needed, and for approval to break EPA regulations, due to the of possibility of not having enough capacity. But they state “While the vast majority of generating units in the ERCOT region continue to operate without any problem, a small number of units have experienced operating difficulties due to cold weather or gas curtailments…Most of these units are expected to return to service before anticipated demand peak through Saturday, December 24, 2022..

I’ve been watching the dashboard diligently and they never actually had to implement rolling blackouts, or even give an energy conservation order, the grid continually operated with a with a low 4MW surplus at the peak (as opposed to the normal 10MW surplus), but the grid held up.

Again the resolution criteria is “multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts during a single storm cell, due to widespread power generation or distribution failures.” This order is the precursor to that, but the emergency order is not rolling/large scale blackouts.

  1. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/Department%20of%20Energy%20Order%20No.%20202-22-3signed.pdf

CodyRushing avatar
Cody Rushing
bought Ṁ40 of YES
PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 65%

@CodyRushing The article even uses the language “While the storm did not cause widespread blackouts” I feel like things were on the razor line these past few days. Not sure it was enough to resolve the market yes before March 20th though 😬

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 68%

@CodyRushing That news week article sites another article by them (1), with a power provider who implemented a rolling blackouts, but that power provider (BEC) only serves ~40k people, across multiple counties and 2,000 square miles(2). I don’t believe it fulfills the requirements of widespread blackouts in multiple cities.

  1. https://www.newsweek.com/greg-abbott-slammed-thousands-lose-power-texas-during-bomb-cyclone-1769505

  2. https://www.banderaelectric.com/en-us/servicearea

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 68%

@PhatFree I used the wrong link article for point #1, here is the correct article: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-blackouts-winter-weather-arctic-blast-threatens-electric-grid-1769410

Nps avatar
Noah
is predicting NO at 69%

I was one of them, but 77k out of 12.82MM is 0.6%. Grid failure isn’t a part of the equation this week, it’s just cold weather taking out small lines or equipment affecting small areas each time. Currently down to 5k without power which is a rounding error for Texas.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 50%

@BTE Rolling blackouts are specific a measure that grid operators use to insure that there is enough supply to meet demand, those are all local outages, often affecting only a few thousand people, ONCOR less then .2% of customers without power in a 24HR period. These were not a caused by widespread power generation or distribution failures.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 54%

A small reminder, even if the grid isn’t overwhelmed this week/weekend, the market is for the whole winter. The snowpocalypse which almost took out the whole grid took place in February.

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
is predicting YES at 53%

@PhatFree When does winter officially end as far as you’re concerned?

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 53%

@LarsDoucet The spring equinox takes place on march 20th, which is also when the market closes 🙂

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen
is predicting NO at 58%

Looks like the tough bit will be when the wind dies off tonight. Otherwise hanging out at around 0.7% of customers with outages, currently.

Nps avatar
Noah
is predicting NO at 59%

Would have lost big if I was betting on my own house... Unlucky 0.5% 😭

Nps avatar
Noah
is predicting NO at 59%
PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 48%

😅

NickAllen avatar
Nick Allen
bought Ṁ40 of NO
PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 54%
LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
is predicting YES at 63%
PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 60%

@LarsDoucet I’ve updated the language in the resolution, I don’t consider 20 local outages affecting 2,000 people in a metro of 4.5 million enough to meet the criteria.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 57%

@PhatFree Correction 5,700 people, but that’s still only .14% of of ONCOR customers at the moment, maybe I need to define a percentage? Or does reported by major news organizations sort of cover me on that?

LarsDoucet avatar
Lars Doucet
is predicting YES at 54%

@PhatFree Yeah I’m not claiming it needs to be resolved now just adding some evidence. The worst hasn’t even hit yet!

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 54%

@PhatFree Fair enough, and agreed!

JamieCrom avatar
jamie
is predicting YES at 59%

i think there is a lot of liars who are forced to say nothing bad will happen because they wanna keep their jobs. thats just my imo

RyanMoulton avatar
Ryan Moulton
bought Ṁ10 of NO

Thread of predictions. https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1604536886852206594?s=20&t=SO207-sCk6owtJops8Wm9g

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 59%

@RyanMoulton Natural gas is still a big big variable if you ask me, I’ve flopped from “it will happen” to “it won’t happen” in the last day, but It really could still go either way.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 57%

I can adjust the yes criteria to something along the lines of “the state of Texas experiences blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures” if people believe its less ambiguous.

Also open other suggestions that can reduce resolution ambiguity.

GooglyEyes avatar
Predictator
is predicting NO at 63%

@PhatFree Inserting "due to widespread power generation or distribution failures" in the current resolution description would reduce ambiguity.

WilliamHoward avatar

multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts

does it have to be multiple cities at the same time or just at least two cities over the course of the winter?

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 60%

@WilliamHoward It should be multiple cities at once, or in extremely close proximity. But I’ve purposely left this open all winter as there may be multiple winter storms.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.
is predicting NO at 78%

Aaccording to ERCOT (Texas grid operator) they aren’t expecting any issues, but they were unable to stay true to their statements in 2021. The Texas legislature has given ERCOT no ability to mandate winterization of the Texas energy suppliers which are primarily independent and operate in a free market.