In February of 2021 Texas experienced large scale blackouts, with a near complete grid failure, due to a week long state wide winter storm. A new winter storm is coming to Texas the week of Christmas, will Texas experience rolling blackouts or large scale blackouts before march 20th of 2023?
Market will resolve yes if: multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts during a single storm cell, due to widespread power generation or distribution failures. as reported by major news organizations.
12/22/22: added "widespread power generation or distribution failures" into the resolution
12/19/22: added "during a single storm cell" in the resolution
Cold front is here and it’s going to be above freezing all week in Austin
Outlook for January-February from the Old Farmer's Almanac:
Region 11: Texas-Oklahoma
Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early to mid-January and early to mid-February. Precipitation will be below average, but snowfall will be above average in the north, with the best chances for snow in mid- to late January and early February.
FWIW. Not sure how much stock to put in the Alamanac. Anyone got any other forecasts for the following two months? Wondering whether to cut my losses or wait for this to rebound.
@LarsDoucet NOAAs forecast from dec 15 has slightly above average temps https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Any tippers? I have -43M and no chance of a comeback. In return for a 50M tip I will trade some KEY SUPER HIGHLY IMPORTANT confidential information (it may or may not be real).
Who would have the power to cause large scale blackouts in Texas?
“requested the emergency order Friday, warning it may need to resort to blackouts.”
“While the vast majority of generating units in the ERCOT region continue to operate without any problem, a small number of units have experienced operating difficulties due to cold weather or gas curtailments,”
@BTE If you read the energy order (1) they’re looking for the approval to identify and use additional generators if needed, and for approval to break EPA regulations, due to the of possibility of not having enough capacity. But they state “While the vast majority of generating units in the ERCOT region continue to operate without any problem, a small number of units have experienced operating difficulties due to cold weather or gas curtailments…Most of these units are expected to return to service before anticipated demand peak through Saturday, December 24, 2022..”
I’ve been watching the dashboard diligently and they never actually had to implement rolling blackouts, or even give an energy conservation order, the grid continually operated with a with a low 4MW surplus at the peak (as opposed to the normal 10MW surplus), but the grid held up.
Again the resolution criteria is “multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts during a single storm cell, due to widespread power generation or distribution failures.” This order is the precursor to that, but the emergency order is not rolling/large scale blackouts.
Newsweek reporting small scale blackouts
@CodyRushing That news week article sites another article by them (1), with a power provider who implemented a rolling blackouts, but that power provider (BEC) only serves ~40k people, across multiple counties and 2,000 square miles(2). I don’t believe it fulfills the requirements of widespread blackouts in multiple cities.
@PhatFree I used the wrong link article for point #1, here is the correct article: https://www.newsweek.com/texas-blackouts-winter-weather-arctic-blast-threatens-electric-grid-1769410
I was one of them, but 77k out of 12.82MM is 0.6%. Grid failure isn’t a part of the equation this week, it’s just cold weather taking out small lines or equipment affecting small areas each time. Currently down to 5k without power which is a rounding error for Texas.
These are reported rolling blackouts across nearly the entire state over the last 24 hours.
@BTE Rolling blackouts are specific a measure that grid operators use to insure that there is enough supply to meet demand, those are all local outages, often affecting only a few thousand people, ONCOR less then .2% of customers without power in a 24HR period. These were not a caused by widespread power generation or distribution failures.
A small reminder, even if the grid isn’t overwhelmed this week/weekend, the market is for the whole winter. The snowpocalypse which almost took out the whole grid took place in February.
Looks like the tough bit will be when the wind dies off tonight. Otherwise hanging out at around 0.7% of customers with outages, currently.
Would have lost big if I was betting on my own house... Unlucky 0.5% 😭
i think there is a lot of liars who are forced to say nothing bad will happen because they wanna keep their jobs. thats just my imo
Thread of predictions. https://twitter.com/douglewinenergy/status/1604536886852206594?s=20&t=SO207-sCk6owtJops8Wm9g
I can adjust the yes criteria to something along the lines of “the state of Texas experiences blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures” if people believe its less ambiguous.
Also open other suggestions that can reduce resolution ambiguity.
multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts
does it have to be multiple cities at the same time or just at least two cities over the course of the winter?
Aaccording to ERCOT (Texas grid operator) they aren’t expecting any issues, but they were unable to stay true to their statements in 2021. The Texas legislature has given ERCOT no ability to mandate winterization of the Texas energy suppliers which are primarily independent and operate in a free market.