Terms

• "Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Any eruption of Kilauea qualifies, not just eruptions into its summit caldera. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.

• "By then end of" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone) and includes any time after the start of the market until the last moment of the indicated month.

• "Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page.

  • Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).

  • Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer.

• Market will resolve N/A if an eruption starts in January

Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities

• When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes".

• Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption.

• Which volcano: with triangulation and modern earthquake monitoring equipment, it's often possible to trace magma flows to a particular underground reservoir, eliminating any ambiguity about which volcano erupted, even in cases like Kilauea, which borders or two other volcanoes. However, if USGS reports indicate any ambiguity, I won't resolve this market until the ambiguity is cleared up by USGS or 48 hours has passed after the end of the market (whichever comes first). If the ambiguity persists after that and the latest publication by USGS indicate Kilauea is even a remotely possible source, I'll resolve this market as "Yes".

• Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No".

Disclosure: I may bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.