Terms
"Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Any eruption of Kilauea qualifies, not just eruptions into its summit caldera. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.
"By then end of" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone) and includes any time after the start of the market until the last moment of the indicated month.
"Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page.
Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer.
Market will resolve N/A if an eruption starts in January
Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities
When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes".
Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption.
Which volcano: with triangulation and modern earthquake monitoring equipment, it's often possible to trace magma flows to a particular underground reservoir, eliminating any ambiguity about which volcano erupted, even in cases like Kilauea, which borders or two other volcanoes. However, if USGS reports indicate any ambiguity, I won't resolve this market until the ambiguity is cleared up by USGS or 48 hours has passed after the end of the market (whichever comes first). If the ambiguity persists after that and the latest publication by USGS indicate Kilauea is even a remotely possible source, I'll resolve this market as "Yes".
Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No".
Disclosure: I may bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.
Latest update says, "Seismicity has decreased significantly beneath the upper East Rift Zone, as has inflation in the caldera south of Halemaʻumaʻu." The park service has reopened the areas closed to tourists. https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2024-05-04T18:14:54+00:00
I created this market because the latest update from USGS HVO says in part, "Kīlauea volcano is not erupting. The significant increase in seismicity beneath the upper East Rift Zone and caldera south of Halemaʻumaʻu that began in the early morning of April 27 is continuing and has intensified. Updates are being provided daily while the heightened state of unrest continues. "
Additionally, the National Park Service (NPS), which controls the land surrounding the Kilauea summit caldera has just closed some of the main tourist attractions due to the perceived risk. Given the disruption to tourists who have planned their vacations months or years in advance, plus the loss to park revenue of losing tourists, these closures only happen rarely (although the last time it happened, in December 2023, did not precede an eruption).
Here's an IPython notebook that calculates the average number days between eruptions over the past century at 489 (mean) and 264 (median): https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1HCoRIBVD73E3lHNy_YmwG7V0dj0BsorW?usp=sharing . Using the median figure, the baseline probability for this market resolving Yes at its start (i.e., an eruption within 33 days) is about 11.5%. Obviously, I provide no warranty for this data or results; your bets are at your own risk. 😃