Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
1,000
3.00Not sure if you know, but there is a market on this at polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-hot-will-april-2024-be
@nivunknown They seem pretty sure of over +1.31C when highest for April is only +1.13C. Falling from Aprils +1.39 seems highly likely to me.
@ChristopherRandles I suspect a large part (if not all) of the data used to compute the final number is already available to download since the 7th May. That would explain the sudden jump in probability on that day. >1.31 went from 13% to 85%! The sources used by GISTEMP are mentioned in the source code, and they indeed seem to have been updated recently.
ERRSTv5
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html
GHCNv4
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/metadata/landing-page/bin/iso?id=gov.noaa.ncdc:C00950