Will Tropical Storm Hone form (in the Central Pacific) before Jan 1, 2025?
4
41
130
2025
36%
chance

"Hone" is the next name to be used for a tropical storm developing in the Central Pacific.

The last storm to develop in the Central Pacific, Ema, occurred in October 2019.

Resolves YES if the Central Pacific Hurricane Center names a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone "Hone" before 00:00 Jan 1, 2025 HST. This will be determined by Central Pacific Hurricane Center (or National Hurricane Center, in the event of a backup) advisories.

Resolves NO otherwise. This includes if a system operationally considered a tropical depression is upgraded in post-analysis/best track to tropical storm strength. Unnamed subtropical storms (such as 96C in 2018) do not count.

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I will not be betting in this market, but for the record I do think we will see Hone next year (or even later this year). I think it is favored due to El Niño, which is when the vast majority of homegrown central Pacific storms develop. The base rate for years with central Pacific storms seems to be about every 3 years or so (vague recollection of the data, sorry).

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