Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
35
1kṀ7348
2030
14%
chance

WEIRD = Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Developed.

List of WEIRD countries for the purposes of this market:

  1. Australia

  2. Austria

  3. Belgium

  4. Canada

  5. Czech Republic

  6. Denmark

  7. Estonia

  8. France

  9. Greece

  10. Germany

  11. Iceland

  12. Italy

  13. Latvia

  14. Luxembourg

  15. Netherlands

  16. New Zealand

  17. Norway

  18. Spain

  19. Sweden

  20. Switzerland

  21. United Kingdom

  22. United States

WEIRD Doomsday
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Can you define civil war? Does this count? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corsican_conflict

Related:

https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co

https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i

https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade

https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a

https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil

https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi

https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192

https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k

(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)

People are also trading

Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8% chance
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
13% chance
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
12% chance
Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?
52% chance
Will any of the following Western countries abandon democracy by 2030?
24% chance
Will any of the following Western countries attempt to annex another country before 2030?
10% chance
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
19% chance
Will France have a civil war by 2050?
12% chance
Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
Will any of the following Western countries experience a national homicide rate above 10 per 100,000 per year before 2030?
40% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy