Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?
Basic
30
2.3k
2070
54%
chance

Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.

Resolution Criteria

For the purposes of this question, "Western" countries will be defined as the following:

Austria Belgium Canada Croatia Czechia Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Poland Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United States of America Australia New Zealand

For the purpose of this question, "engage in a war" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:

  • One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.

  • A clear consensus of international authorities indicates that a state of active warfare exists between those two countries.

  • An armed conflict occurs between two or more Western countries in which at least 1,000 nationals of all Western belligerents, or 0.005% (1 out of 20,000) of the de facto pre-war population of any one Western belligerent, are confirmed to have been killed directly by armed combat within a 1 year (365 day) period. In the event that such a conflict begins less than 1 year prior to this question's resolution date, deaths occurring after the specified resolution date will not be considered.

Fine Print

In the event that one Western nation states that it is at war with another as a joke or stunt, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine whether that statement describes a de facto declaration of war by one country on another.

Accidental or unauthorized use of weapons or military force during peacetime will not count towards the resolution of this question. Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if this applies.

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