Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
1k
Dec 31
38%
chance

For the bet to resolve as «yes» anything of the following should happen:

  1. There must be an official acknowledgement from either:

    • The Ukrainian high command

    • A senior government official

    • A consensus from 3 of the following 5 reputable international news sources: BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, The New York Times

    • Crowdsourced maps, like ISW or Deepstatemap

    Clearly stating that Ukrainian forces have retreated from or lost control of at least 25km of a significant frontline since February 20, 2024.

    "Significant frontline" is defined as any of the 5 currently active frontlines as of February 20, 2024:

    • Northern Donetsk (Slovyansk)

    • Southern Donetsk (Pokrovsk)

    • Luhansk (Kupiansk)

    • Kherson

    • Zaporizhzhia

    "Loss of control" means Ukrainian forces have completely retreated from or can no longer resist advancing opposing forces in the defined territory. As evidenced by verifiable photo/video confirmation from journalists from at least 2 of the approved international news sources above.

  2. Any ceasefire agreements must be formally announced by both the Ukrainian government and Russian state sources. Including explicit reference to cessation of fighting due to breakdown of a specific named frontline in the exact ceasefire text.

The bet will be resolved by December 31, 2024 or earlier.

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Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state-0e415b192aa1?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?

pro-Russian ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

25km retreat is an interesting definition of collapse. You might also want to sync this with new directions such as Kharkiv

@abra Retreating from the border villages and even Vovchansk cannot be counted as a collapse of a frontline because the UAF can still successfully resist advancing opposing forces and the breakthrough distance is strategically insignificant. Partial encirclement of Kharkiv however would count.

Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:

  • Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:

EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state-0e415b192aa1?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?

pro-Russian ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

pro-Ukraine ceasefire?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

  • Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?

https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M

Compare:

@PS The difference in the bets lies in predicting whether the Ukrainian army will suffer strategic losses, rather than both sides.

@MichaelVoss Yes, so this market should be lower than the more general one...

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