Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
Ukraine-Russia warUkraine
Basic
50
Ṁ3.9k
2025
45%
chance

The market resolves to YES if a formal peace agreement or armistice between the two is signed before the end of 2025. The war will not be considered to have ended in the case of a temporary ceasefire (inspired by Nicola Wilson's market).

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bought Ṁ250 YES

Should be a big bump with the selection of JD Vance as VP combined with Trump's election odds.

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 37% order

I do not think that Ukraine gives up if USA cuts support, there is still support from europe, "survival mentality" on one side and russizm on the other. Neither of the 3 positions would be affected by US change of the course. And I do not think Russia is capable of utilising/profiting on the changes.

I would give only 0.5%-1% to the mentioned bump.

That's why I'm not betting to 100, but new evidence of bad things for them should move the market from its previous level.

You have bet from 20% to 35%, which is a relative 75% increase. Did you intend to do so?

The market was at the same point as late March, when the US election was a tossup and the Republicans didn't have a VP pick.

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