Question resolves to YES if the US president signs into law a federal protection for same-sex marriage before the end-of-day on Dec 25th, 2022. Purely executive action does not count. Such a bill has currently passed the House at time of this market's creation and is scheduled for a vote in the Senate.
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Nov 16, 6:48am: Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law by Christmas, 2022? → Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law by Christmas Day, 2022?
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Resolves YES, the bill was just signed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/us/politics/biden-same-sex-marriage-bill.html
@NicoDelon Technically it still has to be signed into law, but that's essentially guaranteed to happen.
@Gabrielle still has to go back through the House as well, I think - since there were some amendments made in the Senate.
@MattP Yes, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2022/senator-vote-count-respect-for-marriage-act/ says it's expected to go through the house as soon as next week, and then to Biden to be signed into law.