Will a federal protection for gay marriage pass into law before the midterms?

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resolved Nov 9

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Question resolves to YES if Joe Biden signs into law a federal protection for same-sex marriage before the midterm elections on Nov 8th. Purely executive action does not count. Such a bill has currently passed the House at time of this market's creation.

Creator betting policy: I will bet on this as with any other market.

Jul 21, 7:35am: Joe Biden, or the president at the time should that change for some reason. Fear not any kind of sneaky wording, the question means what it plainly says, there's no shenanigans here.

Jul 21, 7:39am: also should note, I'm resolving based on what passes into law, not what takes effect. I would still resolve YES if such a bill passed into law but was immediately enjoined by a court, for example.

Jul 21, 7:51am: last clarification - talking about the United States.

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9 Comments

31 Holders

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predicted NO

I'll give most of the day for any YES holders to post evidence to the contrary that I may have missed (some sort of stealth passage of a different bill, I dunno), otherwise resolving NO.

predicted NO

Didn't pass: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404

predicted YES

Federal recognition of same sex marriages is sufficient? The respect for marriage act does more than that, wondering what the minimum is.

bought Ṁ25 of YES

@MartinRandall on the margins I'd have to make a judgment call, but purely federal recognition (that would not repeal DOMA and force states to recognize SS marriages performed in other states) wouldn't count. Keyword in the question being "protection".

predicted YES

Basically, if whatever passes makes it possible for a same-sex couple with the ability to travel to obtain a marriage that has to be recognized in all states, I'd resolve YES. Something short of that or no action at all, I'd resolve NO.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@MattP The respect for marriage act https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404 does require states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states, so I believe that would count.

bought Ṁ274 of YES

Hmm on further reading, it seems like it's a little bit unclear exactly how much recognition for marriages in other states is required. The bill requires "full faith and credit" for out-of-state same-sex marriages. To be even more specific, the text of the bill is: No person acting under color of State law may deny— “(1) full faith and credit to any public act, record, or judicial proceeding of any other State pertaining to a marriage between 2 individuals, on the basis of the sex, race, ethnicity, or national origin of those individuals; or “(2) a right or claim arising from such a marriage on the basis that such marriage would not be recognized under the law of that State on the basis of the sex, race, ethnicity, or national origin of those individuals.

predicted NO

@jack yes, I count the current text of that bill as sufficient for a YES resolution if it passes into law.