Resolves YES if the Respect for Marriage Act - H.R.8404 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8404 - passes the US Senate by the end of 2022; otherwise NO.
Background: The bill requires the US federal government to recognize same-sex and interracial marriages, and repeals the Defense of Marriage Act; essentially codifying the Supreme Court Decision Obergefell v. Hodges.
The bill passed the House with the support of 47 out of 211 Republicans and every Democrat. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he is working to get 10 Republican votes to pass the bill in the Senate: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/20/same-sex-marriage-senate-schumer-gop/.
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Vote to be held this week: https://www.semafor.com/article/11/14/2022/the-senate-will-vote-to-codify-same-sex-marriage-rights-this-week
Seems quite likely that it will passโSenate democrats clearly made a deal with republicans that the latter would supply the 10 votes needed if they delayed the vote to happen after the midterms.
Vote reportedly delayed until after the midterms.
https://twitter.com/burgessev/status/1570465497375801344
Probably raises the chance of it actually passing, but horrible move from the Democrats politically. The whole point was to create a win-win scenario where you either force Republicans into an unpopular stance right before the midterms or you codify an existing right.
Cloture filed Thursday; vote scheduled for next week.
For reference, same/similar market on polymarket: https://polymarket.com/market/will-gay-marriage-pass-the-us-senate
Signs point to this passing this year: https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1567268709974024193?s=20&t=2oRAayex4XhBqMbCw-rRyw