Will SCOTUS grant cert on cases which involves these LGBT+ topics by end of year 2026? (https://manifold.markets/embed/Noah1/will-the-us-supreme-court-take-up-a-e3aa03eae53c)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, LGBT+ topics in schools, followed by Gender-affirming care for minors and Conversion therapy are most likely. See the market for live updates (26 traders, as of Apr 24, 2026).

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

MANIFOLD

Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?

Ṁ1kṀ3.7k

2027

99%

LGBT+ topics in schools

99%

Gender-affirming care for minors

98%

Conversion therapy

92%

Transgender athletes

81%

Anti-discrimination laws

49%

Coverage of gender-affirming care

34%

LGBT+ people in the military

31%

Gender-affirming care for adults

31%

Editing gender markers on government documents

30%

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

29%

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

20%

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

14%

Transgender bathroom rights

10%

Same-sex marriage

Same-sex intimacy

Will SCOTUS grant cert on cases which involves these LGBT+ topics by end of year 2026?

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bought Ṁ1 YES

Is there a chance of these resolving earlier before EOY passes?

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Noah1 https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/20/supreme-court-catholic-schools-religion-colorado-00880551
https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/st-mary-catholic-parish-v-roy/
Seems like this would resolve yes soon...

@Noah1 they heard arguments on this case today. This should resolve yes

@Noah1 https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-lgbtq-conversion-therapy-ban-2f7d1648a274dec4f99ea99c7245245f

Supreme Court will take up state bans on conversion therapy for LGBTQ+ children, in a Colorado case

The Supreme Court has agreed to decide whether state and local governments can enforce laws banning conversion therapy for LGBTQ+ children, in a Colorado case.

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