Meta is launching a new app. It's called Threads.
This market resolves to YES if by the end of 2024, it hits 100M MAUs (if they disclose DAUs, I'll consider the DAU/MAU ratio of the family of apps, it usually hovers around 67%)
If Meta doesn't disclose that at any point, I'll rely on my judgement, using estimates of sell-side of investment banks like Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and others.
In case of doubt, I may wait until Q4'2024 Meta Earnings calls at the begging of 2025 to conclude.
Nonetheless, this market may require significant judgement and therefore I won't bet.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ306 | |
| 2 | Ṁ106 | |
| 3 | Ṁ75 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
I think this was resolved fairly given the circumstances, but it is a less interesting question to me than whether they will have 100M active users any time soon excluding say, activity within 24 hours post-signup. There's clearly a low barrier to signup that makes MAU numbers less comparable to other services.
Can anyone think of a good way to formulate a question on whether their high MAUs are a bit of a mirage or not?
@chrisjbillington “What will the ratio of Threads’ DAU / signups be one month after launch?” Or something like that, but you need to be able to get their DAU numbers from an earnings report and the sign ups count badge needs to be available still
@wustep Trying this somewhat subjective market for what I'm really interested in, regardless of DAUs:
@JakeTeale I already resolved to YES the /MP/will-metas-threads-have-50m-maus-by to YES, so yes, it will resolve. That's what I understand the difference between by and on.
@wustep Oh wait, this market is “by” not “at”… which means as soon as it hits 100M confirmed MAU it’ll be resolved