Will Twitter have more users than Meta Threads in December 2025?

It is too early to predicted, but Twitter has a long history and a loyal user base. It will be difficult for Threads to displace Twitter as the go-to platform for real-time news and information.

Threads is missing some features that are important to many Twitter users, such as hashtags and keyword search. This could make it difficult for users to find the content they are looking for.

@SumaiyaRage I do agree. Assuming Elon Musk does not continue to make the silly changes that are turning off Twitter Users, Threads should not be competition for years to come. It has taken Twitter 17 years to amass just under 530 million monthly monetizable users. From a personal POV, I can infer that this is a lower number than it might have been before the acquisition by X. However, with the opportunity for branding and ad revenue payouts for users who accumulate impressions, the app is likely to see these numbers increase subsequently. The model is one that was initially frowned upon but, as a frequent user (Twitter is arguably the only social media I use outside of work-related activities), it is clear to see that the ad revenue is attracting users.

With a customer base that ideally should only keep rising, and a sizeable advantage over all present competition with regards to functionality and revenue (Threads has significantly fewer monthly users - Meta’s Threads app has almost 100 million users, says Mark Zuckerberg - The Verge), Twitter really should not be worried about being overtaken. Regulatory concerns also limit Threads's global reach, with the app currently unavailable in the EU due to an inability to comply with legalities around digital markets in the region. That is a significant section of the global market that they would likely want to penetrate; this leaves Twitter with enough time to further secure the market.

Will Meta Threads be officially available in the EU before the end of 2023?

70% chance. Currently Threads app is not accessible in the European Union. Resolves YES if by the end of 2023 I will be able to download Threads from the App Store and create an account, without the use of VPNs and any other hacks.

predicts NO

how will this handle Twitter's transition to "X" and the possible addition of other types of functionality to the app (sending $, etc)? it seems like this should be comparing Threads users against the users of the "Twitter component of X" - could you confirm if that will be the case?

predicts NO

@AndyMartin In case my prior response did not post, I confirm that we will be comparing Threads users against the users of the "Twitter component of X"

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/outcome-of-threads-joining-the-fedi

Outcome of Threads Joining the Fediverse

Inspried by this article: https://privacy.thenexus.today/just-blocking-threads-isnt-enough/ Threads has rolled out the welcome mat to Nazi supporters, anti-LGBTQ extremists, and white supremacists, including groups like Libs of TikTok that harass trans people. If you’re not familiar with Libs of…

I doubt Twitter will keep reporting their user numbers.

@esusatyo They have to for advertisers.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

People don't know how many times Facebook has tried to clone other apps and failed. The graveyard contains at least dozens and maybe hundreds.

For example, they made a Snapchat clone that got tens of millions users quickly but flamed out.

The vast majority of new products fail, even by industry behemoths.

predicts NO

@DrewSpartz Agreed, but they don't have their own Twitter or Website devoted to a graveyard of products/services like Google(Alphabet) 🤣 [unless I'm blind and can't find it]

And you have to admit, their snapchat clone being called "Poke" was the ultimate killer of that app, just a dumb name, much like Netflix attempt at making "Qwikster"