Related questions
“X has a bot problem unlike anything else seen on competing platforms
“When X's Super Bowl traffic is compared to other social media platforms during the same time period, the bot issue on Musk's platform appears even more stark. CHEQ also provided data to Mashable pertaining to Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok. In terms of fake traffic, no other platform came close to X's nearly 76 percent.
“Out of more than 40 million visits from TikTok, only 2.56 percent were determined to be fake. Facebook sent 8.1 million visits and 2.01 percent of the monitored visits were classified as inauthentic. And over on Instagram, only 0.73 percent of the 68,700 visits from the platform were fake.”
Hope for the NO voters. If Musk can't fund the debt then Twitter gets sold. Someone could "rewind" back to the good old days and restart the network.
X’s Latest Traffic Numbers Show a Decline in Average Time Spent per User
“First off, in terms of total user seconds, X’s average over the last week is 360.7 billion seconds per day. That’s the whole time that users spent in the app, which, on the face of it, is an incredible amount of time.
“But breaking that down, 360.7 billion user seconds equates to 6.01b total minutes per day. X claims to have 253 million daily users at last check, so if you divide the total minutes by total users, that’s an average of 23.8 minutes per day spent, per user, in the app every day.
“Which is not close to what X reported back in October, when it said that users were spending an average of 32 minutes per day in the app, and lower than what the former Twitter team was reportedly seeing, at 30 minutes per day per user. So while the topline numbers look impressive, at many billions of seconds, the actual time spent per user is seemingly declining, not increasing, as Musk claims.
“Though if average user seconds are increasing, then conversely, the total number of users must be in decline. X may be right in reporting that users are spending 32 minutes per day in the app, but for that to be true, that would mean that X is now only serving 185 million users per day, a drop of 68 million users.
So either X is seeing less usage per user than it claims, or it’s serving fewer users overall.”
@TP8ac2 If Elon is willing to lie about how many users he has and this resolves based on the numbers each company released, that seems bullish for yes :b
😆 My expectation is that user growth/decline trends of Threads vs X by year-end will be clear enough that independent research and traffic data may not even be necessary, though I think that’s the only fair way to resolve this market.
I'll admit I'm not paying super close attention to the situation because I'm so burnt out on big social media that I don't even generally care anymore, but I'm betting NO. Bluesky from what I've seen in my circles seems to be getting much more traction by a long shot to the point that I don't foresee many picking Threads over Bluesky. Remaining active Twitter users seem too attached to the website (despite a lot of them still complaining about it, lol) that I almost can't foresee anyone who hasn't already left doing so within the next year unless something severe happens to force them to, so I can't imagine a significant drop in Twitter users that would bring it under Threads' usercount either, unless something super severe happened
@ngoomie I can't see Bluesky taking off as long as they're still actively preventing people from joining,
@Joshua why is there a new market if the new one, as it says in the description, is based on this one?
I do like that they found a concrete disagreement to bet on.
@Jacy it's based on the one by Kevin Roose, and they're non-zero worried he will resolve punditly.
@EvanDaniel yeah good clarification - and what accounts for the more sporadic (at best) view of twitter's metrics since they're not as readily or regularly available?
“Large hedge funds and credit investors on Wall Street held conversations with the banks late last year, offering to buy the senior-most portion of the debt at roughly 65 cents on the dollar. But in recent interviews with the Financial Times, several said there was no price at which they would buy the bonds and loans, given their inability to gauge whether Linda Yaccarino, X's chief executive, could turn the business around.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bc0b6534-c1b6-4979-bc21-30c1ff4594a2
Hey have you guys seen the Metaculus version of this question that lasts until 2026? Twice as much time for Threads to get ahead of Twitter! Want to guess what % it's at? Did you guess?
@Joshua manifold has much more uncertainty about resolution criteria, and resolution here will be ambiguous. For all I know, this market could resolve on a random post by Zuckerberg claiming that thread surpassed X in whatever metric.
@Lorenzo The creator of this one is an admin, so that bodes well. Generally agree though.
But metaculus doesn't have much to go on for this either, and resolves YES if "Meta publicly reports Threads has a Monthly Active User number higher than the best public estimates of Twitter's MAUs at that time" - that also could be a post from Zuck vs a tweet from Musk.
@chrisjbillington I’ll do my best to find as credible and neutral a source as possible, but yes, the resolution will be based on what information is publicly available.
@chrisjbillington Good point on this being an admin, and you're right that in theory both metaculus and manifold could resolve randomly, but in practice it seems to me to be more common on manifold. Still, I should have bought more NO when it was cheap.