Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:



the claim in April 2024 was that it happened, though the metrics are US only. what's the most reliable source for Twitter DAU tracking? do they release it quarterly or...? (the most recent data I see on places like Statista is also from April)

Zuckerberg just posted that a year on, they're seeing 175M monthly users.

bought Ṁ1 NO at 9%
bought Ṁ10 NO at 9%

Anyone actually believe this?

Musk claims new all-time high in usage while X employee discloses 150 million bot purge:

@TP8ac2 all I know is that there are still an awful lot of bots on x.com

@jim Yes:

Resolver please remember to beware facebook's self-reported usage metrics. Remember that time they straight out lied about video metrics and remember that they patched this into instagram so "daily use" might just mean reading one bad algorithmic tweet recommendation that's leaked into their instagram notifications or something useless and incomparable like that.

@makoyass I agree that Meta (and other social media companies such as X) are incentivized to report heavily massaged or aggressive user metrics.

Since Meta has already been caught I believe they are likely to be more cautious in their reporting while X is likely more reckless, especially given the precarious financial position it is in, but third-party analysis should be used in resolving this market.

When someone links me a thread rather than a tweet I will sell my trade.

I’ve been sharing X posts rather than threads because Manifold doesn’t allow embeds from threads, but here’s one:

X Reports Updated EU User Counts:


That’s up from 130 million monthly active users in February. The last claim from X was 250 million daily active users.

@TP8ac2 let's go

One anecdote, ands it’s US only but still:

Threads now has more daily active users in the US than X (Twitter).

User Growth Comparison: According to data from Apptopia, Threads has surpassed X in daily active users (DAUs) in the US and has maintained this trend since December of the previous year. Currently, Threads ranks third in the Apple App Store for free app downloads, while X is in the 41st position. In the Google Play Store, Threads is ranked 12th among free apps, and X is in the 44th place.🧵1/4

“X (formerly Twitter) could be facing a ban in Brazil, after Elon Musk’s latest decision to defy a court order to block “certain popular accounts in Brazil”


Reopened with closing date set to the original closing date at the end of the year.


why did this resolve to n/a?

@AlexanderLeCampbell that's what I'm wondering too

Alice appears to be N/A-ing her markets en masse. Some of them are personal which makes sense, but ones like this are objective and mods could run them so I think this will be re-opened.

@Joshua Gonna unresolve it now myself, but I shouldn't be the one in charge of resolution since I have a position.

@Joshua Not that I’m losing my conviction in my yes position, but it seems like a clear conflict of interest for the largest no position holder to be intervening against the market creator’s resolution rather than requesting mods to make the decision.

@TP8ac2 Understandable, but the precedent is very much that objective markets can't be N/A-ed for no reason. I did leave it frozen until other mods can take a look at the situation though, I didn't fully re-open it.

@Joshua do they get penalized/punished for mass mis-resolving markets?

@Tenoke I mean, usually people do this when they want to not be on the website anymore. Which is perfectly fine, of course.

@Joshua sure, but if they do end up not leaving Id think they shouldn't be allowed to make more markets due to being unreliable.

@Tenoke We don't have any rules against that, as far as I'm aware, what we do have is a rating system where you can leave bad reviews.

@Joshua My understanding is you can always push resolution to the mods? Which I fully intend to do (en masse) if I ever did decide to quit entirely.

@ZviMowshowitz yes. it doesn't even require intention, if you just stop using manifold, your markets will be resolved by mods

@Tenoke We have star ratings for this purpose, no need for a ban hammer. People with high star ratings should be shamelessly copying markets by low star creators. Reputation matters and liquidity should flow to the most reputable market creators.