Related questions
@a2bb Do the thousands of accounts that were used to inflate the twitter follower counter in the neighboring market count in DAU?
I barely hear threads ever mentioned, nearly forgot it exists. Seems like most of the worlds in which this resolves YES are worlds where Twitter self-immolates, rather than one where Threads actually becomes more popular.
@chrisjbillington Or threads is somehow closely coupled with Instagram or Facebook or WhatsApp and so somehow lots of people become users.
End of 2024 leaves a lot of time for Meta to use its other platforms to boost Threads. I'm not sure if it's probable but buying since I think it was undervalued at 20%.
how will this handle Twitter's transition to "X" and the possible addition of other types of functionality to the app (sending $, etc)? it seems like this should be comparing Threads users against the users of the "Twitter component of X" - could you confirm if that will be the case?
After reading a bit more about Threads / Fediverse I was inspired to put together this market:
https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/outcome-of-threads-joining-the-fedi
@PatrickDelaney At the same time, Twitter seems to have gone down in rankings vs. Instagram this year. I wonder if we are going to see a small amount of decentralization of social media. Maybe it's not a huge trend but it could impact the final outcome.
https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/
@PatrickDelaney threads is nowhere close to a finished product yet. I wasn't expecting it to keep rising in the short term anyway. They'll have a huge influx of users and then flatten out for a while and see their DAUs dipping. Then one by one they start adding features and improving the platform and integrate it with instagram better. Then, maybe 5-6 months from now, we see their DAUs rising, and if in the mean time they can keep their marketing up, which they absolutely can, we will see a coinciding downward trend for twitter which will also stabilize with a very different type of user base. Threads will not be a twitter replacement, not in my current POV, it will be more of what instagram captions are like but for stuff like raising social awareness which is currently done via stories feature of instagram
@PatrickDelaney reminder to myself to create markets based upon this: https://fediverse.space/
and:
@wustep They still report them for advertising purposes, not capital markets.
I read the question as asking if Threads will outgrow Twitter.
a weird 1 day spike in DAU shouldn't be an instant YES resolution.
@nickten "a weird 1 day spike in DAU shouldn't be an instant YES resolution. " why not?
@Alice I and several others are trading on the following interpretation of the question's timeframe, can you please confirm if this is how the market should be interpreted?
Facebook has ~3.0B MAUs. Instagram has ~2.4B MAUs. WhatsApp has 2.8B users. Twitter has ~450M MAUs. (#s might be off, didn't check much)
Traders are undervaluing the impact of non-US users on this market. As an anecdote, I have hundreds of Brazilian friends on FB and IG from the years I spent in Brazil. None of them are on Twitter. Many of them are now on Threads.
The Meta machine has a familiarity to a significant part of the world's population that Twitter never had. I'm not sure what the Venn Diagram between Threads and Twitter will ultimately look like, but Threads certainly has tailwinds by riding FB / IG / WA coattails.
@CarsonGale Good points. Plus, the way the question is worded might mean that only one day has to have more active users in Threads (or, it could mean, which has more daily active users on the last day of 2024 — reminds me of the Google chat bot market haha).
But I think a Twitter-like social app is the ultimate networks-effects-based product. The app is not interesting without interesting people. And most people use Twitter by following very specific people (and not their friends!).
I think it means that it would be hard to start the network effects even in Brazil where they don't much use Twitter. The social media ecosystem is too far along with TikTok and Reels and FB and such that I don't think you could even make a Twitter happen again unless it was already going. The old school idea of following people one-by-one can't compete in this crowded market place.
That said, if anyone can do it, it's Meta. I just think it's much less than 30% chance.
@JamesGrugett haha by vs at. Now I want clarification if this will be resolved on December 31, 2024, or if it happens before then, resolves then
@JamesGrugett The delta is that FB/IG/WA already have the network effects in Brazil / India / Africa / other places. The popular influencers - political / cultural personalities - are already on Facebook and Instagram, not Twitter.
I am much less confident that the people you and I care about will utilize Threads, but it seems more likely for the rest of the world.
@CarsonGale I guess that I thought network effects in those app don't translate to Threads (at least not very much).
