Will Threads have more daily active users than Twitter by the end of 2024?
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4.3K
2025
5%
chance

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“X (formerly Twitter) could be facing a ban in Brazil, after Elon Musk’s latest decision to defy a court order to block “certain popular accounts in Brazil”

https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/x-formerly-twitter-faces-ban-brazil-over-censorship/712501/

Reopened with closing date set to the original closing date at the end of the year.

?

why did this resolve to n/a?

@AlexanderLeCampbell that's what I'm wondering too

Alice appears to be N/A-ing her markets en masse. Some of them are personal which makes sense, but ones like this are objective and mods could run them so I think this will be re-opened.

@Joshua Gonna unresolve it now myself, but I shouldn't be the one in charge of resolution since I have a position.

@Joshua Not that I’m losing my conviction in my yes position, but it seems like a clear conflict of interest for the largest no position holder to be intervening against the market creator’s resolution rather than requesting mods to make the decision.

@TP8ac2 Understandable, but the precedent is very much that objective markets can't be N/A-ed for no reason. I did leave it frozen until other mods can take a look at the situation though, I didn't fully re-open it.

@Joshua do they get penalized/punished for mass mis-resolving markets?

@Tenoke I mean, usually people do this when they want to not be on the website anymore. Which is perfectly fine, of course.

@Joshua sure, but if they do end up not leaving Id think they shouldn't be allowed to make more markets due to being unreliable.

@Tenoke We don't have any rules against that, as far as I'm aware, what we do have is a rating system where you can leave bad reviews.

@Joshua My understanding is you can always push resolution to the mods? Which I fully intend to do (en masse) if I ever did decide to quit entirely.

@ZviMowshowitz yes. it doesn't even require intention, if you just stop using manifold, your markets will be resolved by mods

@Tenoke We have star ratings for this purpose, no need for a ban hammer. People with high star ratings should be shamelessly copying markets by low star creators. Reputation matters and liquidity should flow to the most reputable market creators.

“The number of people using X daily is falling, more than a year after tech billionaire Elon Musk bought the app formerly known as Twitter. 

“Data from two research firms and figures published by Musk and X suggest a deteriorating situation for X by some metrics. Musk has marketed it as the world’s “town square,” but in number of users it continues to lag far behind social media rivals that focus on video, such as Instagram and TikTok. 

“In February, X had 27 million daily active users of its mobile app in the U.S., down 18% from a year earlier, according to Sensor Tower, a market intelligence firm based in San Francisco. The U.S. user base has been flat or down every month since November 2022, the first full month of Musk’s owning the app, and in total it’s down 23% since then, Sensor Tower said. “

https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/fewer-people-using-elon-musks-x-struggles-keep-users-rcna144115

“The data, which is part of a larger study conducted by Edison, said 27% of the total population in the U.S. reported using X in 2022 and 2023, a figure that has decreased to 19% in 2024.

“The data is a measure of people who said they were using the service, not a measure of premium X subscribers or accounts, Edison noted.

“Edison said the social media platform also experienced declines in monthly and weekly usage, but didn’t provide details about such data.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2024/03/06/usage-of-elon-musks-x-dropped-30percent-in-the-last-year-study-suggests/

“X has a bot problem unlike anything else seen on competing platforms

“When X's Super Bowl traffic is compared to other social media platforms during the same time period, the bot issue on Musk's platform appears even more stark. CHEQ also provided data to Mashable pertaining to Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok. In terms of fake traffic, no other platform came close to X's nearly 76 percent.

“Out of more than 40 million visits from TikTok, only 2.56 percent were determined to be fake. Facebook sent 8.1 million visits and 2.01 percent of the monitored visits were classified as inauthentic. And over on Instagram, only 0.73 percent of the 68,700 visits from the platform were fake.”

bought Ṁ1,000 NO at 5%
predicts YES

Hope for the NO voters. If Musk can't fund the debt then Twitter gets sold. Someone could "rewind" back to the good old days and restart the network.

https://www.threads.net/@wayne.codes/post/C2wvZ37OBQS/

predicts YES
predicts YES

X’s Latest Traffic Numbers Show a Decline in Average Time Spent per User

“First off, in terms of total user seconds, X’s average over the last week is 360.7 billion seconds per day. That’s the whole time that users spent in the app, which, on the face of it, is an incredible amount of time.

“But breaking that down, 360.7 billion user seconds equates to 6.01b total minutes per day. X claims to have 253 million daily users at last check, so if you divide the total minutes by total users, that’s an average of 23.8 minutes per day spent, per user, in the app every day.

“Which is not close to what X reported back in October, when it said that users were spending an average of 32 minutes per day in the app, and lower than what the former Twitter team was reportedly seeing, at 30 minutes per day per user. So while the topline numbers look impressive, at many billions of seconds, the actual time spent per user is seemingly declining, not increasing, as Musk claims.

“Though if average user seconds are increasing, then conversely, the total number of users must be in decline. X may be right in reporting that users are spending 32 minutes per day in the app, but for that to be true, that would mean that X is now only serving 185 million users per day, a drop of 68 million users.

So either X is seeing less usage per user than it claims, or it’s serving fewer users overall.”

https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/xs-latest-traffic-numbers-show-decline-average-time-spent-per-user/703732/

predicts NO

@TP8ac2 If Elon is willing to lie about how many users he has and this resolves based on the numbers each company released, that seems bullish for yes :b

predicts YES

@Joshua

😆 My expectation is that user growth/decline trends of Threads vs X by year-end will be clear enough that independent research and traffic data may not even be necessary, though I think that’s the only fair way to resolve this market.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'll admit I'm not paying super close attention to the situation because I'm so burnt out on big social media that I don't even generally care anymore, but I'm betting NO. Bluesky from what I've seen in my circles seems to be getting much more traction by a long shot to the point that I don't foresee many picking Threads over Bluesky. Remaining active Twitter users seem too attached to the website (despite a lot of them still complaining about it, lol) that I almost can't foresee anyone who hasn't already left doing so within the next year unless something severe happens to force them to, so I can't imagine a significant drop in Twitter users that would bring it under Threads' usercount either, unless something super severe happened

@ngoomie I can't see Bluesky taking off as long as they're still actively preventing people from joining,

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