Sitewide Limit Order Challenge: Which Limit Orders on other markets will be filled or cancelled within 2 weeks?
16
1.5kṀ5713
resolved Jun 11
Resolved
NO
@chrisjbillington bets 40,000 mana at 25% that OpenAI will not release Q* by June 1st: https://manifold.markets/100Anonymous/will-openai-release-q-star-by-june
Resolved
NO
E: @DanMan314 bets 500 mana at 52% that Manifold will be operating the sweepstakes model at end of year: https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-manifold-markets-be-legally-al
Resolved
NO
@Stralor bets 2000 @ 10% that the majority of births in first world countries will not be via artifical womb by 2050 https://manifold.markets/Ernie/there-will-be-more-children-born-vi
Resolved
NO
C: @Joshua bets 1000 mana at 45% that Donald Trump will win the election: https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e
Resolved
NO
@DanMan314 bets 1000 mana at 80% that marijuana won't be rescheduled by the end of the year: https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-cannabis-be-removed-f
Resolved
NO
@SemioticRivalry bets 3000 mana at 50% that Israel and Hezbollah will not go to war in 2024 https://manifold.markets/MarcusAbramovitch/will-israel-and-lebanonhezbollah-go
Resolved
NO
@SemioticRivalry bets 2,000 mana at 26% that Donald Trump will not be convicted in federal court prior to the election https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-trump-be-convicted-in-federal-aa9f15f560f2
Resolved
NO
@SemioticRivalry bets 5,300 mana at 25% that Joe Biden will not have a >45% approval rating on election day https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-1c6ee82f65a3
Resolved
NO
@Simon74fe bets 1000 mana at 3% that LK-99 is a RTSC: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre (Same as last time)
Resolved
NO
Resolved
YES
@SemioticRivalry bets 2000 mana at 74% that Mike Johnson will remain speaker for all of 2024 https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-mike-johnson-remain-s
Resolved
YES
@Stralor bets 2000 @ 50% that an LLM will not beat a chess supergrandmaster by 2028 https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a
Resolved
YES
D: @JonasVollmer bets 5000 mana at 87% that UFOs aren't aliens/anything world shattering: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500
Resolved
YES
@TheWabiSabi bets 1000 mana at 25% that Apple sells 500K units Vision Pro: https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-apple-sell-500000-units-of-vis
Resolved
YES
@houstonEuler bets 500 mana at 40% that the re-release of Star Wars: The Phantom Menace earns over $7.5 million at the box office: https://manifold.markets/Ziddletwix/will-the-rerelease-of-star-wars-epi
Resolved
YES
@houstonEuler bets 1000 mana at 34% that Jon Tester will be reelected: https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-jon-tester-be-reelected
Resolved
YES
@houstonEuler bets 500 mana at 41% that the Democratic Party will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Arizona: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-c1307cf9f69a
Resolved
YES
@houstonEuler bets 1000 mana at 67% that Klay Thompson will not be on the Golden State Warriors next year: https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-klay-thompson-be-on-the-warrio

This is a market for drawing attention to large limit orders on other markets, challenging other users to fill them. Larger limit orders get advertised at the top of the market!

Submit answers in this format:

  • @[Username] bets X mana at Y% that Z will happen: [Market Link]

Please post a screenshot of the orderbook showing the limit order in a comment replying to the submission, so that users can see the other limit orders around it.

By default, the challenge is to have the limit order stay up until the next-next Saturday from when you added it to the market. If you want to have your limit order expire sooner than that, you can also specify that in the answer text.


Honor Code

I ask that you only participate in this market according to the following Honor Code:

  • It is Honorable to bet NO on options about your own limit orders as a challenge to counterparties. You are declaring to the world: "None of you are bold enough to take this bet against me." You are encouraged to do this.

  • It is Dishonorable to bet YES on options about your own limit orders, as it it gives you an incentive to cancel the limit order and profit on a YES resolution. Do not do this.

  • It is neither Honorable nor Dishonorable to cancel a limit order because you have honestly changed your mind and no longer wish to make the bet. No one should be mad at you if you do this, and in fact I encourage Yes bettors to try to convince people that they were overconfident and should cancel their limit order.

  • I will add more guidelines about what is honorable or dishonorable as we see how people use this market.


Resolution Rules

An answer in this market resolves YES if that order is filled or cancelled. Please leave a comment with proof if this happens.

This market will close every Saturday at noon. If an option was submitted in the last week, it stays open for one more week. Then it resolves NO the next Saturday if it is still standing, unfilled and uncancelled.

This is all unless you set a custom expiration date, in which case the order just has to stay up until it expires to resolve YES, and otherwise resolves NO.

The market continues re-opening for as long as I want to run it.

These rules may be updated to better fit the spirit of the market, please comment any suggestions you have for improvements.

Feel free to edit options by boldness if you are a mod.

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