Sitewide Limit Order Challenge: Which Limit Orders on other markets will be filled or cancelled within 2 weeks?
May 25
@Simon74fe bets 1000 mana at 3% that LK-99 is a RTSC: (Same as last time)
@chrisjbillington bets 40,000 mana at 25% that OpenAI will not release Q* by June 1st:
E: @DanMan314 bets 500 mana at 52% that Manifold will be operating the sweepstakes model at end of year:
@Stralor bets 2000 @ 10% that the majority of births in first world countries will not be via artifical womb by 2050
C: @Joshua bets 1000 mana at 45% that Donald Trump will win the election:
@DanMan314 bets 1000 mana at 80% that marijuana won't be rescheduled by the end of the year:
@SemioticRivalry bets 3000 mana at 50% that Israel and Hezbollah will not go to war in 2024
@SemioticRivalry bets 2,000 mana at 26% that Donald Trump will not be convicted in federal court prior to the election
@SemioticRivalry bets 5,300 mana at 25% that Joe Biden will not have a >45% approval rating on election day

This is a market for drawing attention to large limit orders on other markets, challenging other users to fill them. Larger limit orders get advertised at the top of the market!

Submit answers in this format:

  • @[Username] bets X mana at Y% that Z will happen: [Market Link]

Please post a screenshot of the orderbook showing the limit order in a comment replying to the submission, so that users can see the other limit orders around it.

By default, the challenge is to have the limit order stay up until the next-next Saturday from when you added it to the market. If you want to have your limit order expire sooner than that, you can also specify that in the answer text.

Honor Code

I ask that you only participate in this market according to the following Honor Code:

  • It is Honorable to bet NO on options about your own limit orders as a challenge to counterparties. You are declaring to the world: "None of you are bold enough to take this bet against me." You are encouraged to do this.

  • It is Dishonorable to bet YES on options about your own limit orders, as it it gives you an incentive to cancel the limit order and profit on a YES resolution. Do not do this.

  • It is neither Honorable nor Dishonorable to cancel a limit order because you have honestly changed your mind and no longer wish to make the bet. No one should be mad at you if you do this, and in fact I encourage Yes bettors to try to convince people that they were overconfident and should cancel their limit order.

  • I will add more guidelines about what is honorable or dishonorable as we see how people use this market.

Resolution Rules

An answer in this market resolves YES if that order is filled or cancelled. Please leave a comment with proof if this happens.

This market will close every Saturday at noon. If an option was submitted in the last week, it stays open for one more week. Then it resolves NO the next Saturday if it is still standing, unfilled and uncancelled.

This is all unless you set a custom expiration date, in which case the order just has to stay up until it expires to resolve YES, and otherwise resolves NO.

The market continues re-opening for as long as I want to run it.

These rules may be updated to better fit the spirit of the market, please comment any suggestions you have for improvements.

Feel free to edit options by boldness if you are a mod.

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Hmmm, another market where 250 mana might be a lot ot ask for a submission right after the exchange rate change? But I'll re-open for another week to see what demand is

C: @Joshua bets 1000 mana at 45% that Donald Trump will win the election:

Close! But resolves no

@Stralor bets 2000 @ 50% that an LLM will not beat a chess supergrandmaster by 2028

Also resolves yes! Glad I'm checking all these.

@SemioticRivalry bets 2000 mana at 74% that Mike Johnson will remain speaker for all of 2024

Resolves yes, it looks like

I had to temporarily cancel mine due to a lack of funds, but will put them back up once I can.

@houstonEuler I guess technically they were cancelled, so I'll just let them go.

@houstonEuler bets 500 mana at 41% that the Democratic Party will win the 2024 Presidential Election in Arizona:

@houstonEuler Seems like this was already cancelled?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I cancelled the original, but replaced it with a new one that looks like it's still there.

sold Ṁ43 @houstonEuler bets 5... YES

@houstonEuler Ah, sorry, I see it now.

seeking big limit orders on this one (just out of curiosity im not placing one)

@Stralor bets 2000 @ 10% that the majority of births in first world countries will not be via artifical womb by 2050
bought Ṁ50 @Stralor bets 2000 @... NO

new limit at market rate placed about artificial wombs

bought Ṁ229 Answer #d2011171a1a4 YES

I took the limit on the Nuggets

Jacksonpolack 50K
bought Ṁ50 Jacksonpolack 50K ht... YES

I dont see a limit order here

I committed to spending Ṁ25,000 on my personal goal market by the end of May, and I have ~5k left. Given that loans are ending soon I'd like to finish spending it ASAP so some of it can get loaned back.

I know personal goal markets are risky, but 95% is absurdly high for a goal that I've failed at two years in a row. I would legitimately be betting against myself at 50%.

@DanMan314 Best of luck!

@DanMan314 RIP now I have a big hole to dig myself out of to have any chance of staying in Masters

C: @Joshua bets 1000 mana at 45% that Donald Trump will win the election:
bought Ṁ239 C: @Joshua bets 1000... YES

I just took this one

@houstonEuler Wait did you? Is manifold lagging? Still there for me

@Joshua Sorry, I commented on the wrong one. It's the 75% chance of felony one.

@houstonEuler Ah! Unresolved then, you should sell lol

@houstonEuler I propose that it is honorable, though not required, to submit a new order to this market when you take someone else's.

@Stralor bets 2000 @ 50% that an LLM will not beat a chess supergrandmaster by 2028

Oh wait filled or cancelled? That makes me a little nervous to be on this market, since the creator can just cancel

@DanMan314 So the idea is that they bet no to declare they won't... but maybe that's not enough?

What else could happen if they cancel an order though? If that caused a NO resolution that'd be worse, right?

My thought is that having your order filled is being defeated in this market, so cancelling an order is "admitting defeat".

However this does interact weirdly with options that aren't self-submittals, like how I added Simon and Jonas' orders.

Maybe the key is that we should only add other people's orders for them if we intend to bet yes? I added both of those and bet no, which will screw me if they happen to cancel those orders

@Joshua I usually set up my big limit orders to expire in less than a month, so not relevant for this market but I imagine others do similar things

@DanMan314 ohhh good point