Resolves to party of the presidential candidate who wins the state of Arizona in the 2024 US presidential election. Resolves after the AP calls the race.
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41% feels a bit too low. Arizona probably won't be the marginal state but if you think Kamala has 50+% chance of wining, a 9% gap is too big IMO.
See this market that has her at 53% https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964?play=true
As someone with several alcoholics in his family, I unfortunately know Kamala Harrisā type too well.
1) Party girl all the way through her 20s and early 30s (Willie Brown party happened at 29)
2) Didnāt get married until 49
3) No kids (probably couldnāt)
4) Stress eats (See: her Doritos story. However, āan entire bag of Doritosā in that story were probably swapped in for āan entire bottle of wineā.
5) Erratic mood/disposition changes. One moment sheās very serious, the next sheās laughing hysterically.
6) Speaks extremely slowly when she tries to convey a serious point, as if sheās fighting mental static
Crazy how many people either deny the obvious or just donāt see it.
We've added some free mana as a subsidy to make this a premium market!
Nate Silver currently has Arizona's odds at 53.1% Trump to 46.9% Harris, while The Economist has it at 56% Trump to 44% Harris.
538's polling average shows Harris leading 45.3% to Trump's 44.6%.
The polling average in Arizona is tied right now:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Arizona Senate passes repeal of 1864 abortion ban (nbcnews.com)
The Arizona Senate voted Wednesday to pass a repeal of the near-total ban on abortion from 1864 that was upheld by the battleground stateās Supreme Court last month.
The bill, which the state House approved last week, will soon head to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs for her signature. Hobbs has said she will sign the repeal bill.
Two state Senate Republicans ā Shawnna Bolick and T.J. Shope ā joined all 14 Democrats in the narrowly divided chamber in approving a repeal of the Civil War-era law that held the power to send a doctor to prison for providing nearly any kind of abortion care.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/17/politics/arizona-house-abortion-law-repeal/index.html
TheĀ Republican-controlledĀ Arizona HouseĀ of RepresentativesĀ once again failed to advance a repeal of the stateās 160-year-old abortion ban Wednesday, days after the state Supreme Court roiled state politics by reviving the law.
The vote is a blow for GOP candidates in competitive races, who have been scrambling to distance themselves from the courtās decision. Republicans facing competitive races in the state, including former President Donald TrumpĀ and US Senate candidate Kari Lake, called on the GOP-controlled legislature to work with Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs to take a more moderate path.