Will Manifold Markets be operating the sweepstakes model without legal intervention at EOY 2024?
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Only applies to the US.

If real money trading never happens and it seems like the legality was a factor, resolves no. If it doesn't happen for a totally unrelated reason, resolves n/a. In my view, the N/A condition is relatively unlikely, because the legality would at least be at least a minor factor in their decision.

If users can bet on Manifold Markets and withdraw into real money, even if it's in the form of somewhat fuzzy "prizes" at EOY 24, resolves yes.

Regarding gift cards, it depends on the quantity/types of gift cards available- if I can withdraw a virtually limitless amount of Amazon money, that's basically just US dollars and it's a Yes. If I can only withdraw in very limited quantities/types of gift cards, it's a no.

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/A-New-Deal-for-Manifold-c6e9de8f08b549859c64afb3af1dd393

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If users can bet on Manifold Markets and withdraw into real money, even if it's in the form of somewhat fuzzy "prizes" at EOY 24, resolves yes.

I'd expect legal intervention to happen AFTER the real money prizes happen. Can't sue for intentions.

I spent some time formulating a more carefully specified question, that also lets us bet on whether it launches at all vs is launched then cancelled vs is launched and still running at EOY

"Will Manifold Markets be operating the sweepstakes model without legal intervention at EOY 2024?"

There are tonnes of legal interventions that could occur with results such that Manifold Markets has to operate some subset of what it plans to right now.

Given some of the editing done, the question should be "Will manifold stop the sweepstakes model due to legal intervention?"

Also, we really should be able to see edit versions for questions. I mean... for real.

@gpt_news_headlines you can see the edit history by clicking the three dots

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 50% order

I am putting down NO limit orders as a bounty on people doing some legal forecasting. l ask staff to please not take my orders, I am curious to see which users will.

opened a Ṁ100 NO at 44% order

To be clear, I have no legal expertise myself to back my No position here, except that Nothing Ever Happens.

I just want to incentivize @traders to take five minutes and google this, and then take my mana if you think Yes is likely.

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Joshua Wait, if nothing ever happens, wouldn't this resolve YES?

@Marnix Determining the direction which is the NEH resolution is arguably the main skill in forecasting hahaha

I think that Nothing Ever Happens is that weird legal ideas usually don't work out even if they seem like they should from a bird's eye view.

@Joshua that's fair! My thinking here is that the NEH resolution would Have to be a "yes" so long as the sweepstakes model starts at all - if the CTFC doesn't take action, or if the action lets them continue, it feels like it's a NEH. But I suppose "will the sweepstakes model ever be put into place" is a NEH that could go either way!

@Joshua I don't think it is going to work but I'm unsure on what timeline it will not work. My best guess for an early demise is that there will be a hair trigger on election related stuff which could result in faster action.

So, I don't have much of a position in markets like this beyond a few mana here and there.

@Eliza Well even some token limit orders to show your own credence are appreciated. I agree timelines are tough to predict here, I'd like to see someone cite a previous example of how fast regulators responded to something like this. I'm having trouble finding much precedent either bullish or bearish in my own search.

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 45% order

@Joshua I've opened limit orders on YES. I tend to think their idea of having real cash prizes won't happen, but I do think having "fuzzy prizes" as per the description like Gift Cards would be obtainable.

@mint Hmmm I don't think they'll do gift cards but @SemioticRivalry can we get something added to the description about if they do?

edited

@SemioticRivalry I think your edit is pretty fair, I'm keeping my limits up. My only concern is if they have a monthly withdrawal limit, which I think wouldn't be unreasonable, just to make their finances more predictable and deter fraud. Like if you can withdraw max $500 per month of GCs I think it's pretty generous so hopefully that would still be YES.

If they do go with Gift Cards, I would hope they choose Amazon as that's as close to real money as it gets.

@mint that would be a yes imo

@SemioticRivalry All seems fair enough to me. I'll think about taking those orders

boughtṀ10YES

CFTC works slowly

Chumba seems to be pretty restricted.

@gpt_news_headlines Nice find but I’d actually qualify this as quite unrestricted, no? Most states would qualify easily as YES for this market, no?

@SemioticRivalry qq -

clarification: What is the "sweepstakes model" .. do you mean cashing out $$ into your bank deposit? What about 'prizes'?

Prizes, I think are possible. Cashing out, unlikely.

Also, "If it doesn't happen for a totally unrelated reason, resolves n/a." ... seems a bit unfortunate, tbh. legal ambiguity might be a part of the reason, but not the official one.

what if manifold gets banned in the netherlands? would that resolve yes

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