[ACX 2024] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
[ACX 2024] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
132
1.3kṀ72k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. Conversely, the resolution will be No if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House at any point in 2024 for any reason, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, a vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity. The determination of the resolution will be based on reports by credible sources.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ2,882
2Ṁ358
3Ṁ252
4Ṁ206
5Ṁ111


Sort by:
9mo

What is Biden meaning by this???

1y

Related question for folks who want to bet on his most likely method of demise:

predictedNO 1y

Clarifying question: does “all of 2024” mean the common-use terminology of “through December 31, 2024,” or does it mean “through the end of the federal calendar,” (read: fiscal year), which ends on September 31, 2024?

1y

@Suzumebatchi The Metaculus question is set to close on Dec 31, and in a different case they explicitly specified that question used the fiscal year. I think it's safe to assume this one resolves based on calendar year.

e.g. here they explicitly specified fiscal year, and the end date is set to Oct 1st: https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-us-refugee-admissions

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules