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Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. Conversely, the resolution will be No if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House at any point in 2024 for any reason, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, a vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity. The determination of the resolution will be based on reports by credible sources.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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@MikeChenSF Here we go again!

Related question for folks who want to bet on his most likely method of demise:

predicts NO

Clarifying question: does “all of 2024” mean the common-use terminology of “through December 31, 2024,” or does it mean “through the end of the federal calendar,” (read: fiscal year), which ends on September 31, 2024?

@Suzumebatchi The Metaculus question is set to close on Dec 31, and in a different case they explicitly specified that question used the fiscal year. I think it's safe to assume this one resolves based on calendar year.

e.g. here they explicitly specified fiscal year, and the end date is set to Oct 1st: https://manifold.markets/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-us-refugee-admissions

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