When will the first self-replicating spaceship take off?
22
1kแน€5827
2051
September 14, 2043
5%
2025-2030
7%
2031-2035
11%
2036-2040
23%
2041-2045
54%
2046-2050

  • Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Clarification on the definition of "self-replicating spaceship":

    • If Altman clarifies his stance, the market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obviously memeing).

    • Otherwise, the definition will be based on classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring.

    • Regarding resolution if no such event occurs (i.e., no qualifying spaceship takes off meeting criteria for earlier options/buckets): The last bucket will resolve YES.

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Re: what kind of replicating probe - If Altman clarifies his stance, market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obv memeing). Else classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring

Re: if none of them - last bucket resolves yes

sorry for spam I fat fingered the reply button ๐Ÿ˜…

None of them?

@Nddc generally these numerical markets resolve to the the final bucket in that case, but I agree clarification would be good @JoeandSeth

bought แน€100 NO

unlimited self-replication? Or does it also count if the spaceship carries all the resources for a second version without having to collect new resources?

opened a แน€500 YES at 7% order

@Jan53274 presumably it's about von Neumann probes... have to collect the resources. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft

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Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
9/14/26
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?
10% chance
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
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