Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
5
1kṀ7932026
2%
Ship 37
6%
Ship 38
6%
Ship 39
16%
Ship 40
16%
Ship 41
17%
Ship 42
16%
Ship 43
21%
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the first SpaceX Starship to successfully land on the catch arms (chopsticks) of a launch tower. The vehicle must come to rest in one piece on the chopsticks, but any following event, including destruction, will not affect the resolution.
If there is sufficient evidence Starship will never be caught, this will resolve N/A.
Notes
S37 and S38 are the final remaining Block 2 ships. S39 is the first Block 3 ship.
Newer ships may be added as needed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the Starship flight 10 ship be caught?
1% chance
When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Will the SpaceX flight 11 ship be caught?
25% chance
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
By when will first Starship be reused?
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
Will a Starship upper stage with Raptor 2 engines ever be caught successfully?
16% chance
When will Starship complete an orbit?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
2/20/26
Where will the first crewed Starship landing happen?