When will the first self-replicating spaceship take off?
22
1kṀ5798
2051
December 6, 2043
5%
2025-2030
7%
2031-2035
11%
2036-2040
21%
2041-2045
57%
2046-2050

  • Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Clarification on the definition of "self-replicating spaceship":

    • If Altman clarifies his stance, the market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obviously memeing).

    • Otherwise, the definition will be based on classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring.

    • Regarding resolution if no such event occurs (i.e., no qualifying spaceship takes off meeting criteria for earlier options/buckets): The last bucket will resolve YES.

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Re: what kind of replicating probe - If Altman clarifies his stance, market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obv memeing). Else classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring

Re: if none of them - last bucket resolves yes

sorry for spam I fat fingered the reply button 😅

None of them?

@Nddc generally these numerical markets resolve to the the final bucket in that case, but I agree clarification would be good @JoeandSeth

bought Ṁ100 NO

unlimited self-replication? Or does it also count if the spaceship carries all the resources for a second version without having to collect new resources?

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 7% order

@Jan53274 presumably it's about von Neumann probes... have to collect the resources. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft

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When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will a self-replicating space probe capable of exploring and utilizing resources be created before 2040?
10% chance
When will Starship first launch or land on Earth with human passengers?
By when will first Starship be reused?
Which Starship will be the first to be caught?
When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit?
When will Starship successfully land for the first time?
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