When will the first self-replicating spaceship take off?
22
1kṀ57982051
December 6, 2043
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
5%
2025-2030
7%
2031-2035
11%
2036-2040
21%
2041-2045
57%
2046-2050
Update 2025-05-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Clarification on the definition of "self-replicating spaceship":
If Altman clarifies his stance, the market will resolve to his interpretation (unless obviously memeing).
Otherwise, the definition will be based on classical von Neumann resource reconfiguring.
Regarding resolution if no such event occurs (i.e., no qualifying spaceship takes off meeting criteria for earlier options/buckets): The last bucket will resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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