Will Starship launch at least [X] times before it launches with humans? [independent]
15
1.8k
2026
99%
5
97%
10
92%
15
89%
20
81%
25
78%
30
77%
40
70%
35
59%
45
58%
50
50%
60
50%
70
41%
100
25%
120
15%
200

Options resolve YES when Starship has launched that many times and still hasn't launched with at least one human on board. (e.g. when Starship launches for the fifth time, "5" resolves YES and the other options remain open)

When Starship launches with at least one human on board, all remaining options resolve NO. If Starship is permanently retired such that no more launches are expected, and it still hasn't flown any humans, all remaining options resolve NO.

Only full-stack (booster and ship) launches count, but they don't have to be orbital launches. Launches before market creation count, starting with the April 20, 2023 launch. For this market, a "launch" is defined as the rocket rising fully above the launch tower under its own power.

There have currently been 4 launches so far. (updated June 9 2024)

I've started with options up to 30, but I may add more in the future if it makes sense.

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How would HLS missions be counted? Suppose the crew transfers to Starship in orbit and then flies to the Moon. Does that count? Does the launch from the Moon back to Earth count? If so, do uncrewed launches from the Moon get included in the total launches count?

@EvanDaniel Interpreting the criteria as written:

  • Only full stack ship+booster launches count, so launches from the Moon by the ship alone don't count.

  • The human has to be onboard during the ship+booster launch for it to count as a launch with humans.

So the current plan of the Artemis program, with crew transferring into Starship in orbit, would not include any ship+booster Starship launches with humans.

I don't know that we need them tightly spaced at the high end, but getting numbers like 100 and 120 on there might be useful.

For comparison, Dragon Crew Demo 1 was Flacon 9 launch # 85.

@EvanDaniel Sure, added those, plus 200

Everything up to 30 got a YES bet, so I added options up to 50.

@Multicore Does your mana stay tied up even after the option you bet on is resolved? If so it might be undesirable to add more and more longer term options. Get it back through loans of course, but still bad to mix really short term with long term options?

@ChristopherRandles I believe that you get your payout immediately when an option in independent multiple choice resolves, even if other options remain open.

@Multicore I thought it showed as resolved but the expected value and spent stayed there. Basically I am not completely sure.