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Added some clarifications, if you have questions about them please let me now so I can improve them.

First of all, the West Bank part of Palestina is not involved in this conflict directly. So at least some part of Palestina is very very highly likely to be the same as before this conflict. If the author call the status independent, then this market is 99.9% yes. Isn't it?

@yk When I created this market it was not clear that the west bank would stay outside the conflict (and even now it is not an impossibility), so this seems correct.

@JoaoPedroSantos I see! Thanks for clarification.

Palestinian has some autonomy but is not the independent country, so thay cannot lose something they don't have.

From the legal point of view the number of countries recognazing Palestain as a country will not change.

The question is pointless or badly written.

@ArekStryjski If it has authority then it is independent, palestine is a though thingh to define as it could be defined as the most independent annexed region or the least independent country. I will try and add a very simple description to clarify.

Still? Is there independent Palestine now?

I don't think you know much about the situation in the middle east

@CarmelHadar Palestine is currently a de facto independent entity. We could argue that they are not occupying their entire de jure territory (if we accept that Israel is a permanent occupier of most of former Palestine). This is a discussion not related to this bet.

Maybe I should clarify and say that Israel will occupy Gaza and the west bank (territories of old/de jure Palestine that are still not de facto Israel right now).

Also, I am not trying to have an opinion or take on the conflict just trying to get the prediction crowd to make a guess on the future developments of the conflict.

@JoaoPedroSantos But they're not even de facto independent? They can only collect taxes through Israel, Israeli security forces can come and leave as they wish and they don't have clearly defined borders.

@JoaoPedroSantos If you go by the criteria from the Gaza market:

Governance and Legal Systems: The ability to make and enforce laws while allowing citizen participation in decision-making processes.

Partial. Only in some parts of their territory and even there Israeli military rule can be applied if Israel wishes. No citizen participation either.

Security and Border Management: Ensuring internal safety and defending against external threats, while regulating who comes in and out of the territory.

Highly partial. There is an internal security force but it can't defend against external threats

Public Services and Utilities: Providing essential services like healthcare, education, and utilities such as water and electricity.

Yes, although some services like water and electricity are not entirely independent

Economic Oversight: Control over financial systems, including tax collection and monetary policy.

No. Can only collect tax through Israel. Cannot conduct monetary policy

International and Environmental Relations: Maintaining international relationships, disaster preparedness, and resource management.

No. Technically an observer in the UN, but highly limited in the diplomatic actions they are allowed to take.

@Shump I have changed the title to address these concerns, later I will add a clarifying description to further improve this question.

Also note that I had never referred to Palestine as a country nor argued that it had presently full control of it's territory.

I think it is currently an independent entity bordering Israel and Jordan in the west bank and Israel and Egypt in Gaza.

@JoaoPedroSantos It's not about what Palestine should be. I think it should be independent, but that's not the issue. The title change makes it even worse. It's not separated from Israel. It's basically an automomous region. More like Scotland than Nagorno-Karabach (until recently).

@Shump How about this quote from Al-Jazeera, which is generally a pro-Palestinian source

Its [Palestinian Authority] creation was supposed to pave the way to an independent Palestinian state, but today it is considered to have little real power and is operating under the control of the Israeli military

@JoaoPedroSantos Maybe just change it to "would the Palestinian Authority exist?" Should capture the original intent. Also, I know I've been arguing kinda hard but I know you're acting in good faith, so sorry if I seem to be doubting that.