Will over 50% of living Israeli hostages captured on the October 7th '23 conflict be returned or freed by Jun 1st '24?
20
129
1k
Jun 1
16%
chance

When will the hostages return?

Edge cases

  • If a deal is struck before resolution date but they aren't returned yet, resolves NO

  • If freed by non-Israeli forces, resolves YES

  • If it's unclear what is the actual number of live hostages captured in the conflict, will resolve N/A

  • 50% is calculated from the number of hostages taken alive, as reported by Hamas or estimaded by Israel. If a hostage was confirmed to be captured alive, but dies during captivity, it doesn't change the number of hostages taken alive, only that of those that can be returned alive.

Betting policy

I will not bet on this market. It is a means of dealing with a stressful and uncertain situation for me, not to test and hone my predictive abilities.

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Israeli news Haaretz: 4 hospitals have been instructed today to prepare special wards for released hostages. Reports are that hostage negotiations are underway mediated by Qatar. I'd buy YES if I were betting on this market...

https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politics/war-2023/2023-10-27/ty-article-live/0000018b-6dca-db57-a7cb-eddfb6190000?liveBlogItemId=477714611#477714611

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