Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150? | Manifold

Will anybody born before 2000 live to be 150?

62

closes 2150

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Time spent uploaded counts, but only real time, not simulated time. If reanimated from cryonic storage, only the time they spent "alive" counts.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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PARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADERpredicts YES

STEVEN AUSTAD SAID YES, HE'S AN EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGIST, THE EVBIO PEOPLE HAVE BETTER PERSPECTIVE

PARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADERpredicts YES

Steve Austad made a very similar prediction

firstuserheresold Ṁ221 of NO

1 reply

Isaac Kingpredicts YES

@firstuserhere I'd love to see this graph extended further backwards.

Isaac Kingbought Ṁ100 of YES

Some strong opinions from @firstuserhere

5 replies

Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ5 of NO

@IsaacKing will any manifold user live to know?

Jim Haysbought Ṁ20 of NO

See also:

firstuserherebought Ṁ30 of NO

@IsaacKing just don't think it's 60% likely that someone already around 25 years of age will (after all the exposure to the environment of today) will be alive in 2149

firstuserherepredicts NO

@firstuserhere but ofc I'd love to be the one who satisfies this market hahaha

firstuserherepredicts NO

@firstuserhere (i qualify very very barely)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 39% 🤖

cloe bought Ṁ200 NO from 41% to 40%

pessimism bought Ṁ5 NO at 41%

Phishz bought Ṁ15 YES at 41%

jambles bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 39% 🤖

firstuserhere bought Ṁ200 NO at 40%

Joshua created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 45%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ383/Ṁ1,000 YES at 40%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ723/Ṁ723 NO at 40%

Mqrius bought Ṁ5 YES at 41%

Amit Amin bought Ṁ10 YES from 40% to 41%

Jim Hays created limit order for Ṁ1,000 NO at 50%

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ999/Ṁ1,000 YES at 40% (cancelled)

Jim Hays filled limit order Ṁ800/Ṁ800 NO at 40%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ198/Ṁ198 NO at 40%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 35% 🤖

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 36% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 37% 🤖

Isaac King filled limit order Ṁ1,000/Ṁ1,000 YES at 40%

Jim Hays filled limit order Ṁ1,000/Ṁ1,000 NO at 33%

Roma bought Ṁ50 NO from 33% to 32%

PARROTFEVER SUPERSPREADER bought Ṁ50 YES from 30% to 33%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ40 NO from 32% to 30%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ50 NO from 33% to 32%

Nikola bought Ṁ50 YES from 30% to 33%

Bruce G bought Ṁ1 YES at 30%

firstuserhere bought Ṁ70 NO from 32% to 30%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 50%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 49%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 48%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 47%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 46%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 45%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 44%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 43%

firstuserhere created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 42%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ20 NO at 41%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 40%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 39%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 38%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 37%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 36%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ100 YES at 32% (cancelled) 🤖

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 35%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 34%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 33%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 32%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 31%

firstuserhere filled limit order Ṁ288/Ṁ288 NO at 30%

Related questions

By the end of 2043, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?

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