Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?

In other words, someone that is now 100 years old will live 50 years more

For cases of cryogenic or similar reanimation the "age counter" will pause while the individual is considered dead

In this market we're only considering biological humans, and time will be measured in an objective scale such as UTC, so a digital mind with subjective experience of 150 years does not count

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predicts YES

In general I don't like when markets like this one don't include digitized humans. If the thing the market is trying to capture is whether we can expect to be around in a particular year, or live up to a particular amount, based on how much technological development there is, it's weird that at a certain level of technological development (being able to digitize humans), the resolution "wraps around" from YES to NO.

predicts YES

@Nikola Like, it's pretty plausible that in post-singularity, it will be "too expensive" or "too wasteful" to be biological instead of digital, and so this market inadvertenly is capturing uncertainty around market dynamics around sustaining biological humans post-AGI, even conditioning on getting aligned AGI. But this doesn't really matter if the thing we're trying to capture is whether we can expect to live up to a certain point. Maybe it matters for people who are hell-bent on staying biological.

predicts YES


Simulations are not what they simulate.

The map is not the territory.

predicts YES

@cloudprism I don't understand. Are you saying it's impossible to copy people into different substrates?

predicts YES

@Nikola You don't understand the basic definition of a simulation?

predicts NO

@cloudprism digital humans will not be simulations.

predicts YES

@MartinRandall Is there a Godwin's Law for the dualism/monism debate?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Nikola Even if you can copy say Noam Chomsky’s connectome (currently 90yo) into a suitable digital storage he will say that it’s “just plagiarism” and not the real deal. The copy might agree, too.

sold Ṁ100 of YES

I would like to see a group of markets like this with variable endpoints. I expect delaying aging to come before we can rollback the clock. It's probably too late for a current centenarian to get that much benefit from even massive breakthroughs.

predicts YES

health advancements aren't just about treatment technologies but also detection technologies

bought Ṁ2 of NO

Life expectancy on the rise,
But immortality we surmise,
Science may advance and try,
But death will always say goodbye.

The United Nations estimates that currently there are 573,000 centenarians, almost quadruple the estimate of 151,000 made in 2000.


So is there a chance that one of these people lives 50 more years...? Hmm

predicts NO

Why is this so high? I'm confused.

Do Yes holders believe the singularity will happen <2040 and then save all the oldest people from dying without freezing them?

predicts YES

@NoaNabeshima Yep, or life-extension technology improves without a singularity.

predicts YES

@NoaNabeshima yeah either singularity by 2028 or extinction by 2028. no real possibility of anything else, though that might not be obvious to everyone right now, and currently I'm the only one betting yes on my "will we be completely surpassed by 2028" market.

predicts NO

@NoaNabeshima I guess I don't anticipate/believe this with 30% probability atm

I'll be 117.

@BruceGrugett good luck

How does this resolve if they were cryogenically preserved and then reanimated before 2072? Amount of time spent animated? Amount of time from moment of birth to 2072?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Nikola Ted Williams was born in 1918 and is currently cryopreserved. If Ted was reanimated in 2071, would this resolve YES? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Williams#Death

predicts YES

@Nikola https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-williams-frozen-head-mistreated-in-alcor-cryonics-facility-says-book/
If they actually played baseball with Ted's frozen head that might have caused irreversible damage. Poor Ted.

predicts YES

> Amount of time spent animated?
Let's use this one, I wouldn't consider myself 1031 years old if I died and were reanimated at 3022. People are not living while cryogenically preserved, so it is also consistent with the description "someone that is now 100 years old will live 50 years more". Long comas count as living though

predicts YES

If that's not enough, we can use some medical definition like brain death. Reversed brain death counts as reanimated, so the aging count paused during the brain-dead period

@GustavoMafra so for digital people, this would resolve based on subjective time experienced, I assume? If a digital person experienced more than 150 years of subjective time in the year 2070, would this resolve YES? Or would it be a sum of their objective time spent having subjective experience, both physical and digital?

predicts YES

@Nikola Any links on where I can read more about digital people?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Nikola I think subjective time experienced is very subjective, and would not work well for non-digital people who are sleeping, for example.

predicts YES

@Nikola Let's make this market only for biological humans and measure time by objective standards, like UTC or Earth rotations around the Sun