GustavoMafra avatar
Gustavo Mafra
closes Jan 1, 2072
Will anyone be at least 150 years old by 2072?
25%
chance

In other words, someone that is now 100 years old will live 50 years more

For cases of cryogenic or similar reanimation the "age counter" will pause while the individual is considered dead

In this market we're only considering biological humans, and time will be measured in an objective scale such as UTC, so a digital mind with subjective experience of 150 years does not count

Sort by:
NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
is predicting NO at 35%

Why is this so high? I'm confused.

Do Yes holders believe the singularity will happen <2040 and then save all the oldest people from dying without freezing them?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
is predicting YES at 35%

@NoaNabeshima Yep, or life-extension technology improves without a singularity.

L avatar
L
is predicting YES at 35%

@NoaNabeshima yeah either singularity by 2028 or extinction by 2028. no real possibility of anything else, though that might not be obvious to everyone right now, and currently I'm the only one betting yes on my "will we be completely surpassed by 2028" market.

NoaNabeshima avatar
Noa Nabeshima
is predicting NO at 30%

@NoaNabeshima I guess I don't anticipate/believe this with 30% probability atm

BruceGrugett avatar

I'll be 117.

Nikola avatar

How does this resolve if they were cryogenically preserved and then reanimated before 2072? Amount of time spent animated? Amount of time from moment of birth to 2072?

Nikola avatar
Nikola
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Nikola Ted Williams was born in 1918 and is currently cryopreserved. If Ted was reanimated in 2071, would this resolve YES? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ted_Williams#Death

Nikola avatar
Nikola
is predicting YES at 29%

@Nikola https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ted-williams-frozen-head-mistreated-in-alcor-cryonics-facility-says-book/
If they actually played baseball with Ted's frozen head that might have caused irreversible damage. Poor Ted.

GustavoMafra avatar
Gustavo Mafra
is predicting YES at 33%

@Nikola
> Amount of time spent animated?
Let's use this one, I wouldn't consider myself 1031 years old if I died and were reanimated at 3022. People are not living while cryogenically preserved, so it is also consistent with the description "someone that is now 100 years old will live 50 years more". Long comas count as living though

GustavoMafra avatar
Gustavo Mafra
is predicting YES at 33%

If that's not enough, we can use some medical definition like brain death. Reversed brain death counts as reanimated, so the aging count paused during the brain-dead period

Nikola avatar

@GustavoMafra so for digital people, this would resolve based on subjective time experienced, I assume? If a digital person experienced more than 150 years of subjective time in the year 2070, would this resolve YES? Or would it be a sum of their objective time spent having subjective experience, both physical and digital?

GustavoMafra avatar
Gustavo Mafra
is predicting YES at 40%

@Nikola Any links on where I can read more about digital people?

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Nikola I think subjective time experienced is very subjective, and would not work well for non-digital people who are sleeping, for example.

GustavoMafra avatar
Gustavo Mafra
is predicting YES at 40%

@Nikola Let's make this market only for biological humans and measure time by objective standards, like UTC or Earth rotations around the Sun

napewno avatar
na pewno
bought Ṁ25 of NO

Centenarians nowadays seem to invariably look really old - there is a component of slower aging but a lot of their longevity is from avoiding illness - so there would have to be a big breakthrough in solving aging quite soon. To date progress in slowing aging seems to be close to null. You'd have to count on something like AI crushing humans in aging science and developing ~immortality by 2040. Notice that it's not the same as developing AGI.

napewno avatar
na pewno
is predicting NO at 29%

@napewno Correction: I think it's quite likely that some developments in the meantime will extend the time available by a few years, maybe something like 10 years. E.g. 3D printed lungs seem like they could extend lifespan even if the rest of the organs are old.

L avatar
L
bought Ṁ50 of YES

probably not idk lol

wadimiusz avatar
Vadim
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Relevant piece of stats: this wikipedia article says that there were around 451,000 people who were 100 years old in 2015.