Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

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predicts NO

If you don’t mind answering, here are some questions.

  • Have you ever smoked?

  • How many alcoholic drinks per week do you have?

  • Do you consume meat or dairy everyday?

  • Do you exercise (say, average 30’ cardio every other day)?

  • Does your family have a history of cancers or heart disease?

  • Have you been diagnosed with depression?

predicts YES

Replying quickly, so apologies for the short answers:
-Most weeks, none. But there will be the occasional night where I'll drink 5-7.

-Roughly 2-3 times per week of mid-intensity
-Yes and Yes.
-No official diagnosis.

predicts NO

@DanielKilian Thanks. Much appreciated.

If you die prematurely, who will have authority to resolve this market?

@KevinLobLaw My partner will.

@DanielKilian Ok. Good. Your partner who will be 156 will take care of this. Whew. I was worried this was a little hair-brained.

predicts YES

@KevinLobLaw I don't sense any constructive criticism here.

@DanielKilian Please update daily for the next 200 years so we know you are alive.

predicts YES

@KevinLobLaw Would it suffice if I update annually? "If there's a year I don't post on Manifold, This market would resolve "No"", would that work?

predicts YES

@DanielKilian I don't think that would work, since P(you stop posting on Manifold | you are still alive) >> 0, I would say (and would bet on it).

So either there should be a more reliable way to learn of your potential death, or else the question might resolve once your death can be deduced from another known fact (e.g. everyone born before 2000 dies), or it might never resolve. I think that is not ideal but mostly fine, and people here are picking on you unreasonably.

Minor point - but I'd be curious what you think of getting revived after being dead, especially digitally.

predicts YES

@OzzieGooen If I am "dead" for long enough that someone closes this market on my behalf, then this market would resolve as "NO".

I've laid down some NO limits. All YES bettors welcome.

Do you:

  1. Have any significant existing health issues?

  2. How old did your grandparents live?

  3. Do you exercise? Smoke? Drink?

  4. Are you taking any medications/supplements to reduce aging? Or otherwise doing anything notable with the intention of living longer?

@PaintedChameleon None of this makes a difference as large as 1% to the overall probability here.

predicts YES

1. None I am aware of.

2.78 for grandma, 72 for grandpa. Unknown for other grandparents.

3. Exercise about 3-4 times per week. Smoke cannabis regularly. Smoke tobacco 1-2 times per month.


@DavidBolin Disagree. I think it's quite possible that longevity escape velocity will be achieved in a few decades. In that case these specifics could likely make the difference between living to 80 vs. living past 200.

@DavidBolin It absolutely matters because, as Chameleon says, Daniel needs to live until the point at which humans (hypothetically) achieve longevity escape velocity in order to live to 200. If he dies at, say, 65, and LEV is achieved when he would be 80, then it resolves NO, when it otherwise would resolve YES.

@DanielKilian Can this market resolve to YES, before 2050? Before 2123?

predicts YES

@firstuserhere Edited the end date, apologies for the confusion.

How old are you?

predicts YES
predicts YES

@DanielKilian Well if you succeed I succeed 27 let’s hope for the best

i believe in you

@SweatyFish I believe in the you that believes in me

predicts NO

@DanielKilian I was going to bet no but then I saw this comment and I'm starting to believe.