I'm giving out M$50,000 in market subsidies, distributed via decision market. Will at least 10 people participate?
23
450Ṁ3116
resolved Nov 5
Resolved
NO

@Austin has granted myself and 4 other people each M$50,000 to use to subsidize prosocial markets before the end of October. My approach will be to leave my decisions up to the invisible hand of the market. (Unless the invisible hand of the market seems stupid, in which case I'll ignore it.)

If you would like your market to be subsidized, you should create one or more pairs of conditional markets that investigate the possibility of some positive outcome from the subsidy. For example:

  • "If [my other market] receives/does not recieve a subsidy of at least M$1000, will it get at least 200 traders?"

  • "If [my other market] receives/does not recieve a subsidy of at least M$5000, will it cause at least 30 people to join Manifold?"

  • "If [my other market] receives/does not recieve a subsidy of at least M$10,000, will a Twitter account of at least 20k followers share it within a month?"

  • "If [my other market] receives/does not recieve a subsidy of at least M$30,000, will it get cited in a news article?"

  • "If [my other market] receives/does not recieve any subsidy from Isaac, will he judge it to have been a good use of mana 1 month later?"

Those are just examples, the exact outcome and resolution criteria are up to you. Once you've created the markets, please provide a link to them here, and if I think the results are promising, I'll provide the subsidy.

Note that I will be focusing on markets that are of practical use to a large number of people; not personal, jokes, or non-predictive. (I won't completely rule out giving a subsidy to markets like that, but it's unlikely.)

This market resolves based on whether at least 10 people create such decision markets for me, and it seems they were serious attempts and not just spamming in order to make this resolve YES.

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