India initially tried to build a military base in Seychelles on Assumption Island in 2018, but was rejected by Seychelles parliament. They instead built a military base on Mauritius's Agalega Island. However, China has been building its own military base in Madagascar and India's military base in Mauritius is farther from the Mozambique Channel. India may decide to build another military base in the southwestern Indian ocean to counter China's growing influence in the region.
Question resolves YES if India starts to build a military base in a country in eastern Africa before the end of 2026, with the military base near the Indian ocean.
Listening posts/radar installations/berthing rights do not count, it has to be a full military base.
1,000Seychelles says any expanded coast-guard base would remain under its command, while India’s Assumption Island plan is still stalled and Agalega is already operational. I put NO at 47% versus the market’s 60% - this looks like it’s pricing the headline, not the missing authorization or the stalled project.