38% chance. Background Many Western analysts believe that China is trying to expand its military reach to a global scale, to further competition with the US and/or protect its overseas trade routes. The first overseas PLA base went operational in Djibouti on 1st August 2017. They also have bases in Cambodia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Cuba. Resolution This question will resolve Yes if there is credible reporting that construction has begun on a new base anywhere in Africa that is clearly intended for military use. This includes if it is for mixed military / trade use, but not if it is primarily for trade, with the possibility of being converted to military use at a later date. My actions I'm primarily asking this question because I'm interested in the answer, not a way of generating profit. I may bet on this question (if I can decide which way to vote), but will keep my bets small relative to the total trading.