If Indian military base in Africa doesn't receive a subsidy from Isaac, will he judge it to have been a mistake later?

Market: https://manifold.markets/bohaska/will-india-start-building-another-m

I believe that markets about India, and especially markets about Indian geopolitics, and especially markets about India-Africa relations, are woefully missing from the prediction platforms. I think that subsidizing this market will help increase coverage of Indian geopolitics in Manifold, bring these issues into greater focus, and maybe help predict how the world's most populous country will develop in the future.

At the same time, I do understand that this particular topic may not be especially important, but I think it's still beneficial in that it highlights neglected topic areas in the forecasting community.

See other conditional market here https://manifold.markets/bohaska/if-indian-military-base-in-africa-r

Will India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?

50% chance. India initially tried to build a military base in Seychelles on Assumption Island in 2018, but was rejected by Seychelles parliament. They instead built a military base on Mauritius's Agalega Island. However, China has been building its own military base in Madagascar and India's military base in Mauritius is farther from the Mozambique Channel. India may decide to build another military base in the southwestern Indian ocean to counter China's growing influence in the region. Question resolves YES if India starts to build a military base in a country in eastern Africa before the end of 2026, with the military base near the Indian ocean. Listening posts/radar installations/berthing rights do not count, it has to be a full military base.

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