At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
At the beginning of 2029, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
9
230Ṁ1332029
77%
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If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:
Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
All markets for each year:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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