If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:
Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
All markets for each year:
1,000
3.00@L Ah, that's a very good point. I'm going to change these markets to have the qualifier "if an intelligence explosion hasn't already happened" to fix that issue. I've tipped you Ṁ10 to make up for your NO bet, if anyone else had also bet NO based on similar reasoning, let me know and I'll reimburse you as well.