If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:
Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
All markets for each year:
1,000
3.00I dunno. Is the difference in the prices interesting? Does it mean anything at all? If I got a call that there was a bomb in my building. The chances that I'd be very concerned about it would probably be a lot lower after about a week. Either I would have found the bomb, it would have killed me, or there wasn't a bomb and it didn't go off. (The question itself at least partially implies that there's no bomb in the building.) But if I got a call telling me that there was a bomb, I couldn't just ignore it, confident in the fact that I wouldn't be worried about it in a week.