Will Manifold stop using AI to make my questions worse by the end of 2025?
100
200Ṁ16k
Jan 2
69%
chance
6

Manifold recently added a feature where AI can edit my market description without my consent. Naturally these edits are terrible, frequently containing incorrect information and not understanding what the market is about at all.

This resolves YES if there's a way for me to turn this off, or it's removed entirely, or the AI gets smart enough that it stops making detrimental edits, or it otherwise stops annoying me.

  • Update 2025-02-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Arbitration Costs:

    • Paying for arbitration costs will not count as a valid solution to the issue.

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Hmm. There's still no way for me to turn it off in general, but I can do it per market. It is not exactly convenient for me to go through 1000+ markets and add this line of text into each of their descriptions, plus remember to do it for all new markets. But I can at least do it on markets that get lots of comments. So the "stops annoying me" part of the criteria has not been met, while the rest sort of has. Annoying edge case I didn't consider.

Gonna punt this decision for later, will see how annoying the AI continues to feel to me in practice now that this feature exists.

@creator does this resolve? They added a way to turn the ai off

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Eliza @IsaacKing Isn't this enough for a yes resolution?

It seemed to work here!

sold Ṁ1,131 YES

@Jasonb I don't think anyone should resolve this on Isaac's behalf -- Isaac is still active, and very often has strong opinions on things like this. You can wait for Isaac to show up and comment about it.

@Eliza Of course, I was not suggesting mod resolution, more voicing my confusion that the market hadn't massively swung. If there had been some concrete publicly known reason why, I was hoping someone would mention it. (Though it appears in retrospect it was just some weird transient market dynamics)

@Jasonb If it helps, I think it's about 50/50.

inaccuracy aside, they are way too verbose to make for good summaries. Way too much fluff and irrelevant information, so it's often quicker to skim for the market creator's comments in the thread. Maybe if Manifold won't budge on it they could at least limit it to very large threads?

opened a Ṁ495 YES at 34% order

@No_uh fill this doubters. id like to exit here

a scrumptiously wise exit

Careful NO holders, we have a market manipulator

@IsaacKing While I believe this would technically qualify to resolve this market YES, it would be pretty disappointing if Manifold went this route. There should be a fix that works for everyone, and does not require a painstaking process of chasing down someone with PR approval permissions.

Come to think of it NO holders could try to convince me that I should altruistically refuse to be put on a special list and insist that this is fixed site-wide instead.

@IsaacKing I also wish it was a site-wide fix but no amount of grumbling (repeatedly, for a long long time!) has gotten anyone to budge. You should take anything you can get to fix your own issue then continue to campaign for everyone else!

@Eliza how would I go about turning off the ai stuff?

@MaxE for now, beg. Be convincing. Use trickery. Prove you CAN manage your market and not need the help

@IsaacKing Joke's probably ultimately gonna be on me, I overbought my YES position lol

I just edited a market description to add some clarifications, and made a comment that I had done this. The AI proceeded to read the comment, read the description that it referred to, and then add completely redundant bullet points to restate the exact same things I had just added above.

My edit:

Comment:

AI:

I can't bet since this is a subjective resolution, but I believe 75% is much too high.

@IsaacKing Interesting. I have been commenting a lot on some recent markets I made, and I don't seem to be triggering the AI to summarize, even though I feel like I'm making comments that would definitely wake it up.

I don't think I've done anything to turn off the AI summaries across all of my markets. However, I think I made a comment that spoke directly to the AI somewhere on one of my markets that told it to look for a specific emoji. I asked it to summarize only if I used that emoji. If that prompt bled across all of my markets, I would be surprised!

I can't, for the life of me, find a link to that comment prompt, though. 🙁

So tempted to buy NO and revoke my agreement

Update 2025-07-05 (---) (summary of creator comment): Consent:

  • The creator might decide they like AI making their question worse, and revoke their agreement to fix this issue, committing also that they do not accept help by EO2025.

@IsaacKing you should. my position in this market is a protest vote essentially cause the ai additions suck ass and id be upset if this resolved YES and it wasn't an option all of us had to opt out of

@No_uh ...Do you want me to add your user id to my pull request too? :)

@ChelseaSierraVoss no manifold should just turn it off

@No_uh Yeah, I 100% agree...

...implicit in my resorting to a PR is that I guess I believe they aren't going to :( ...

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