At the beginning of 2024, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | Manifold

At the beginning of 2024, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

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20

Ṁ516

resolved Jan 15

Resolved as

64%

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:

Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?

This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.

The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.

All markets for each year:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Meta-Forecasting

#Predictions on Predictions

#New Year's Resolutions 2024

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Bought some No shares due to the resolution criteria being limited to fast takeoff scenarios.

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