If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:
Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:
Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.
The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.
All markets for each year:
1,000
3.00Ah, I just realized a problem. Manifold appears to have no way to display who liked a comment past the first 3 people. It looks to me like the result is 28:6, so this market should resolve to 82%, but I have no way to be sure that someone didn't vote twice. Awkward.
I'm inclined to bug Manifold to fix the issue before I resolve this market, but someone could change their vote in between now and then.
Anyone want to put forth a better solution than me resolving this to 82%?
@yaboi69 Ah, so I do. I completely missed that. Alright, looks like there were no duplicate votes, so I'm going to resolve this to 83% unless someone presents evidence that the vote tally was different a few hours ago when the vote officially closed.
Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by EBFrench
Pre-registering the guess that when text starts to work in image generation, it's going to be huge. This is an example of how well it works now. Related #ManifoldMarkets market: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/at-the-beginning-of-2023-will-manif https://t.co/sEmh3oIkpy
Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?
Vote by liking one of my two comments in response to this one.
Poll closes at 16:00 Pacific time on Tuesday. I'll check the vote count shortly afterwards and resolve based on that; people can take a screenshot if they want to ensure the results are exact.
@XComhghall The poll is intended to be about traders' subjective opinions, so anything you believe to qualify as an existential risk is fine to vote about.
If you're unfamiliar with the term, here's the Wikipedia page on it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk