At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075? | Manifold

At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

Manifold•AI•AI Safety•Predictions on Predictions•Meta-Forecasting•AI risk•Polls

8

36

Ṁ78

Ṁ210

2030

73%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:

Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?

This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.

The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.

All markets for each year:

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