At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

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1kṀ925

resolved Feb 27

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If an intelligence explosion occurs, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise:

Shortly after market close, I will post a Yes/No poll in this market's comments, in the Manifold discord, and/or in whatever other appropriate Manifold-related spaces exist at that time. It will ask:

Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?

This market resolves to the percentage of Yes votes in the poll, rounded to the nearest integer.

The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.

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