Resolves according to Ipsos's 2025 Global Threat Assessment survey, by whether there is a higher or lower rate than in the 2024 survey for the Global Country Average for those responding to the question "How real do you feel the threat is of an AI-based defense system becoming a threat to humanity by breaking free of human control?" with either "A very real threat" or "Somewhat a real threat." The 2024 result for this question was 60%. If the 2025 result is exactly 60%, this will resolve 50/50 between the two options.

I will not bet on this market.