The poll is in the comments of this market: /IsaacKing/at-the-beginning-of-2023-will-manif
Anyone is welcome to vote, no matter how much you know about the topic in question.
This market resolves a day before the vote itself closes because i don't want people to have an incentive to not vote at all in order to manipulate this market. So feel free to withhold your vote until after this market resolves, but after that please do vote according to your true belief.
I may not be online at the exact time this market closes, so I'd appreciate someone else recording the vote count at the time. (I'll resolve this market based on the best estimate available to me.)
(I can't like my own comments, but my vote does count, so remember to add 1 to whatever number you see over there.)
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ235 | |
| 2 | Ṁ127 | |
| 3 | Ṁ81 | |
| 4 | Ṁ52 | |
| 5 | Ṁ50 |
@IsaacKing do you know a better way of capturing this info than taking an ss and using the metadata of the ss (which is again, something that can be easily edited lol)
@firstuserhere Ask an impartial third party to confirm, or set up a bot that records the data? Neither was worth the effort for this market, I trust people on Manifold enough to not fake a screenshot.
@IsaacKing as of right now, 1 minute before the market closes, the vote count being 15 Yes votes + 3 No votes - 1 vote in both + 1 vote for you = 18 votes total. Should resolve as a No.
@firstuserhere I guess several people were withholding their bets. The number immediately went to 22 votes a minute after this market closed
@XComhghall I cast two votes, one for yes and one for no. Those are legit votes which do not break any rules. I don't understand why you and firstuserhere suddenly decided that my votes shouldn't count.
This market resolves a day before the vote itself closes because i don't want people to have an incentive to not vote at all in order to manipulate this market. So feel free to withhold your vote until after this market resolves, but after that please do vote according to your true belief.
That's good market making right there
@XComhghall I'll resolve it around then, no guarantees it's exact. You can take a screenshot if you need.
And I'll ignore anyone who's voted for both comments; neither counts in that case.
@IsaacKing Why did you decide to ignore my votes? IMHO both of those votes are legit. This is the first time you said that said each person can only vote once.
I don't think you should be changing the rules 3 hours before the close time.
@Yev To answer your question, I wanted to ignore double votes in the original poll because that would let someone vote for both and cause the ratio to move closer to 50%. I didn't think that someone declining to express an opinion should have any influence over the resolution probability.
As for this market, I wanted to match the criteria of the original market, and I also think that allowing just 15 people to cause the market to resolve to YES did not seem within the spirit of the market's title and description.
I'm sorry for only clarifying a few hours before close, I didn't think of it earlier.
@IsaacKing also, it doesnt make much sense to say both yes and no to the question of the poll.
Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075? - either one does or doesn't or doesn't have enough info (in which case they should ask stuff and not vote a binary thing)
@IsaacKing No, you did say it in the original market. I just missed it somehow.
> The poll will be limited to one response per Manifold account, and the way everyone voted will be public.