The question: https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Will this question resolve before 11:59PM EST at February 9, 2024?
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@Charlie It can also resolve early if the authors admit to fraud or agree with criticisms from other researchers and retract their paper.
@Hennicious its resolution criteria don't state that, do they? I don't see it, am I blind?
@chrisjbillington It doesn't say that explicitly, but perhaps worth asking @QuantumObserver if in a case like that the market would be resolved early.
@Soren doubt he's gonna change something like that this late in the game, that would be poor form - resolution timing affects betting and people have been making bets under the impression that won't happen.
@chrisjbillington @Soren @Hennicious
I don’t have any provisions for early resolution, and I tend to agree with Chris that it would not be desirable to make changes at this point.
If I knew how quickly things would move, I’d have pulled the resolution date in a bit. Normally, though, these things take a while to get figured out.
@QuantumObserver hi Quantum, I am wondering whether you would consider resolving YES early in some circumstances? Or will you just wait til EOY no matter what?
@jim I could imagine a universe in which there is an early YES resolution. It would require much stronger positive evidence. I don’t see a way to reasonably have early NO.