Will LK-99 be used in a practical commercially available device before 2025?
16
38
350
2025
3%
chance

This market resolves YES if the LK-99 material is used in at least one commercially available device designed to be employed for productive puposes before 2025.

  • Used in: The LK-99 material is physically present in the device, and contributes to its functioning such that removing the LK-99 would prevent normal function.

  • Commercially available: It can be legally purchased in the market by non-state actors.

  • For productive purposes: Any action pursued to produce useful work, in an instrumental manner. This includes tools, industrial machines, and office and scientific implements, but excludes toys, decorations, and novelty items.

Note that the resolution of this question does not directly hinge on whether LK-99 exhibits room temperature and ambient pressure superconductivity.

I will not bet on this market. This market will resolve at close.

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