Will a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor (LK-99, or other) be discovered before 2025?
42
1kṀ17kresolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The flurry of research following the LK-99 preprints has led to important mechanistic and computational insights into superconductivity. This creates a more tractable combinatorial space for advanced machine-learning models to explore. Even if LK-99 itself doesn't quite reach the threshold, could the insights it has triggered lead quickly to the discovery of better candidates?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ304 | |
| 2 | Ṁ142 | |
| 3 | Ṁ132 | |
| 4 | Ṁ70 | |
| 5 | Ṁ32 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2040?
56% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
8% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2026?
4% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before year X?
Will room-temperature superconductors (such as LK-99) achieve commercial adoption by 2028?
4% chance
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
1% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2029?
10% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
5% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2028?
8% chance
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2039?
54% chance